TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Rein vs Frantisek Dvorak 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
141210121113116115
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched: 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Dvorak to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Frantisek Dvorak below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 105 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Frantisek Dvorak at 76.7%
105 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 22–45 Frantisek Dvorak Tomas Rein has won 22 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4576.7%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 0.2pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-45 in 67
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 23 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1357 vs Dvorak 1575
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 218 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 40% vs Dvorak 60%
Dvorak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 30% vs Dvorak 70%
Dvorak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein -1 · Dvorak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Dvorak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 3.40 / Dvorak 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Dvorak)-0.2pp
TT Cup · #13219716
Rein3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog33% won 96 of 291
Down 0–1, comes back20% 38 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 102
Dvorak1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 47 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein2wins
AwayDvorak8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDvorak87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein2Dvorak8n = 10Dvorak took 8 of 10
S2Rein1Dvorak9n = 10Dvorak took 9 of 10
S3Rein4Dvorak6n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S4Rein3Dvorak2n = 5Rein took 3 of 5
S5Rein1Dvorak2n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinDvorakR − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match28.338.0−9.7per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 857 vs 162 / 29344.9%55.3%385 / 857 vs 162 / 293Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakRein 3.40/Dvorak 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.7%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rein won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 12:50T. Rein25331181F. Dvorak4211119113
WSep 23 · 12:20T. Rein39421111113F. Dvorak4111116852
LSep 16 · 12:25T. Rein143560F. Dvorak331111113
LSep 10 · 07:55T. Rein227780F. Dvorak331111113
LAug 26 · 12:55T. Rein165920F. Dvorak331111113
LAug 20 · 10:55T. Rein2989120F. Dvorak361111143
LAug 13 · 14:03T. Rein3981121172F. Dvorak48118117113
WAug 13 · 12:20T. Rein3411111113F. Dvorak29111891
LAug 5 · 12:55T. Rein1712140F. Dvorak361411113
LJul 29 · 10:20T. Rein48116111192F. Dvorak49611813113
T. Rein10
LSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.4011211113T. Rein2.75811651WSep 30 · 10:50S. Matousch4.3312512342T. Rein1.2010111011113WSep 29 · 22:35B. Budik1.41116111162T. Rein2.75811133113LSep 29 · 20:55B. Budik1.411213113T. Rein2.60101180LSep 29 · 20:25R. Muller1.50116711113T. Rein2.5081111392WSep 29 · 19:25T. Rein2.3811811153J. Cousin1.536112131LSep 27 · 17:25R. Muller1.4411116143T. Rein2.637811121LSep 27 · 16:50T. Rein2.3811612372R. Muller1.536111011113LSep 27 · 15:20J. Dohnal1.4411114113T. Rein2.63751171LSep 27 · 14:50J. Sebl1.731111123T. Rein2.0073100
F. Dvorak10
WSep 30 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.3091111113S. Matousch3.40118681LSep 30 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.7551111113F. Dvorak1.40117781LSep 25 · 13:55F. Dvorak1.671173101S. Holik2.1071111123WSep 25 · 12:50F. Dvorak1.3011119113T. Rein3.40331181WSep 25 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr2.636740F. Dvorak1.441111113WSep 25 · 10:50S. Holik1.80691151F. Dvorak1.9111116113WSep 23 · 13:50F. Dvorak1.8081111113O. Knazik1.90114431LSep 23 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.2811116852T. Rein3.50421111113WSep 23 · 11:20F. Dvorak2.501111113D. Vojna1.509520WSep 23 · 10:20F. Dvorak1.911111123O. Knazik1.8079100
Upcoming Matches
T. Rein
F. Dvorak
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