TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Cerveny Jr vs Tomas Rein 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181191210––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:59 and never touched: 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Tomas Rein below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 61 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 69.9%
61 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 35–30 Tomas Rein Tomas Rein has won 30 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Cerveny Jr beat Rein 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5969.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cerveny Jr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
35-30 in 65
Cerveny Jr
Correct
gap of 5 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerveny Jr 1557 vs Rein 1375
Cerveny Jr
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerveny Jr 60% vs Rein 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerveny Jr 60% vs Rein 40%
Cerveny Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerveny Jr -1 · Rein +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Cerveny Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rein form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerveny Jr 1.40 / Rein 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Cerveny Jr)-1.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13222569
Cerveny Jr1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 66 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it83% 53 of 64
Rein2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 96 of 291
Down 0–1, comes back20% 38 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerveny Jr9wins
AwayRein1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerveny Jr leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerveny Jr90%9 of 10
AwayReinn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerveny Jr10Rein0n = 10Cerveny Jr took 10 of 10
S2Cerveny Jr4Rein6n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S3Cerveny Jr7Rein3n = 10Cerveny Jr took 7 of 10
S4Cerveny Jr4Rein3n = 7Cerveny Jr took 4 of 7
S5Cerveny Jr3Rein0n = 3Cerveny Jr took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCerveny JrReinC − RBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match39.235.3+3.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCerveny JrReinBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 602 vs 386 / 85855.7%45%335 / 602 vs 386 / 858Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Cerveny JrCerveny Jr 1.40/Rein 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.9%
Cerveny Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cerveny Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr3511211113T. Rein30811651
WSep 25 · 13:25T. Cerveny Jr4312119113T. Rein341051181
WSep 25 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr331111113T. Rein218760
WSep 15 · 14:20T. Cerveny Jr49117911113T. Rein4361111692
LSep 6 · 18:55T. Cerveny Jr28116471T. Rein4291111113
WAug 16 · 19:50T. Cerveny Jr4312512143T. Rein43101110121
WJul 20 · 14:50T. Cerveny Jr331111113T. Rein236980
WApr 24 · 13:59T. Cerveny Jr331111113T. Rein248790
WApr 24 · 12:55T. Cerveny Jr47138114113T. Rein48111171182
WApr 21 · 14:20T. Cerveny Jr48119116113T. Rein4591191152
T. Cerveny Jr10
LSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113WSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.4011211113T. Rein2.75811651WSep 30 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.7551111113F. Dvorak1.40117781WSep 28 · 10:23L. Rek1.33841471T. Cerveny Jr3.25111112113LSep 28 · 08:55T. Cerveny Jr3.001181171L. Rek1.3613119113WSep 28 · 07:55T. Cerveny Jr1.83911612113Z. Muhlhauser1.83119111062WSep 28 · 06:55T. Cerveny Jr1.8311139113A. Brandtl Jr1.838111191LSep 26 · 10:30A. Brandtl Jr1.83128511113T. Cerveny Jr1.83101111962WSep 26 · 08:55P. Kubat2.381081131T. Cerveny Jr1.5312112113LSep 26 · 08:25A. Brandtl Jr1.83911911123T. Cerveny Jr1.83116115102
T. Rein10
WSep 30 · 12:50T. Rein3.4014101111113F. Dvorak1.30121213652LSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.4011211113T. Rein2.75811651WSep 30 · 10:50S. Matousch4.3312512342T. Rein1.2010111011113WSep 29 · 22:35B. Budik1.41116111162T. Rein2.75811133113LSep 29 · 20:55B. Budik1.411213113T. Rein2.60101180LSep 29 · 20:25R. Muller1.50116711113T. Rein2.5081111392WSep 29 · 19:25T. Rein2.3811811153J. Cousin1.536112131LSep 27 · 17:25R. Muller1.4411116143T. Rein2.637811121LSep 27 · 16:50T. Rein2.3811612372R. Muller1.536111011113LSep 27 · 15:20J. Dohnal1.4411114113T. Rein2.63751171
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