TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jachym Sebl vs Vojtech Koutnik 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111115119611119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:53 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Vojtech Koutnik @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 85 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 58.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 11–14 Vojtech Koutnik Jachym Sebl has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:5358.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Koutnik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-14 in 25
Koutnik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1617 vs Koutnik 1643
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 40% vs Koutnik 80%
Koutnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 50% vs Koutnik 70%
Koutnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl -2 · Koutnik +3
Koutnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Koutnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.20 / Koutnik 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Koutnik)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13235488
Sebl2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 27)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 64 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 57
Koutnik1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 50 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl3wins
AwayKoutnik7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl66.7%2 of 3
AwayKoutnik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl3Koutnik7n = 10Koutnik took 7 of 10
S2Sebl3Koutnik7n = 10Koutnik took 7 of 10
S3Sebl2Koutnik8n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S4Sebl3Koutnik3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblKoutnikS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.036.9−5.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime300 / 625 vs 177 / 36148%49%300 / 625 vs 177 / 361Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikSebl 2.20/Koutnik 1.61
Miss
What we said
58.5%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Vojtech Koutnik @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 18:00J. Sebl27411571V. Koutnik3811511113
WSep 22 · 15:20J. Sebl3811511113V. Koutnik30611491
LSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl3191390V. Koutnik371115113
LJun 27 · 09:59J. Sebl186660V. Koutnik331111113
LJun 27 · 08:55J. Sebl3431011101V. Koutnik3911124123
LMay 9 · 21:55J. Sebl163490V. Koutnik331111113
LMay 9 · 21:25J. Sebl28115661V. Koutnik3851111113
WApr 6 · 10:25J. Sebl48111115113V. Koutnik43981791
LApr 6 · 06:55J. Sebl238870V. Koutnik331111113
WMar 28 · 16:25J. Sebl47911511113V. Koutnik4511811872
J. Sebl10
LOct 3 · 11:55J. Sebl1.83118411122D. Zelezny1.83911118143LSep 27 · 17:55J. Dohnal1.401111113J. Sebl2.759640LSep 27 · 16:20J. Dohnal1.5311117163J. Sebl2.384711141WSep 27 · 15:50R. Muller1.67611101182J. Sebl2.10116128113WSep 27 · 14:50J. Sebl1.731111123T. Rein2.0073100LSep 22 · 18:00J. Sebl2.00411571V. Koutnik1.7311511113WSep 22 · 16:50J. Sebl1.6712128113T. Rein2.1010101181WSep 22 · 15:20V. Koutnik1.61611491J. Sebl2.2011511113LSep 22 · 14:50D. Zelezny2.10981211113J. Sebl1.67111110872WSep 20 · 10:06J. Sebl1.57151111113J. Cousin2.251313941
V. Koutnik10
LOct 3 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.53125111192A. Brandtl Jr2.381011135113WOct 1 · 17:50T. Rein2.601191141V. Koutnik1.4513115113WOct 1 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr2.25871171V. Koutnik1.5711117113WOct 1 · 15:50T. Rein2.50961141V. Koutnik1.5011118113LOct 1 · 14:50V. Koutnik1.7311116662D. Zelezny2.00781111113WSep 22 · 18:00J. Sebl2.00411571V. Koutnik1.7311511113WSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101LSep 22 · 15:20V. Koutnik1.61611491J. Sebl2.2011511113WSep 22 · 14:20V. Koutnik1.5713115143T. Rein2.2511311121WSep 20 · 10:34V. Koutnik1.831111113Z. Muhlhauser1.834580
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