TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jaroslav Dohnal vs Jachym Sebl 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141177111614––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:15 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 16-14
Point 81 set 4, 16-14 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 63.6%
81 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 48–17 Jachym Sebl Jachym Sebl has won 17 of their 65 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 10:15What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dohnal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-17 in 65
Dohnal
Correct
gap of 31 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1462 vs Sebl 1654
Sebl
Wrong
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 60% vs Sebl 80%
Sebl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 50% vs Sebl 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal +3 · Sebl +2
Dohnal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.53 / Sebl 2.38
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Sebl)+0.9pp
TT Cup · #13205814
Dohnal1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 116 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it92% 59 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it69% 84 of 122
Sebl2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 66 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal6wins
AwaySebl4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal80%4 of 5
AwaySebl60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal5Sebl5n = 10split evenly
S2Dohnal8Sebl2n = 10Dohnal took 8 of 10
S3Dohnal7Sebl3n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S4Dohnal3Sebl4n = 7Sebl took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalSeblD − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.834.2+4.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 670 vs 305 / 62958.7%48.5%393 / 670 vs 305 / 629Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblDohnal 1.53/Sebl 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.9%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 22:30J. Dohnal35812961J. Sebl43111011113
LSep 12 · 20:25J. Dohnal371196111J. Sebl4161111133
WSep 5 · 10:55J. Dohnal4411129123J. Sebl4091011101
LAug 28 · 19:25J. Dohnal49611111292J. Sebl51116914113
LAug 25 · 14:20J. Dohnal36791461J. Sebl45111112113
WAug 1 · 21:58J. Dohnal331111113J. Sebl156720
WAug 1 · 20:55J. Dohnal4591111143J. Sebl411199121
WJul 24 · 20:25J. Dohnal331111113J. Sebl238870
WJul 7 · 21:50J. Dohnal331111113J. Sebl208840
WJul 7 · 19:20J. Dohnal43101111113J. Sebl23124431
J. Dohnal10
WSep 27 · 15:20J. Dohnal1.4411114113T. Rein2.63751171WSep 27 · 14:20J. Dohnal2.001111113R. Muller1.739990WSep 25 · 22:05S. Holik1.7361181142J. Dohnal2.00117114113LSep 25 · 20:55J. Dohnal1.9191070Z. Muhlhauser1.801112113LSep 25 · 19:55J. Dohnal1.8311116131D. Pasek1.8313911153LSep 25 · 18:55J. Dohnal1.839980S. Holik1.831111113LSep 20 · 18:30A. Jr2.2012119113J. Dohnal1.611041191WSep 20 · 17:25B. Budik1.72114971J. Dohnal2.0091111113LSep 20 · 16:25J. Dohnal1.401111561A. Jr2.7561311113WSep 20 · 14:55T. Rein2.3812660J. Dohnal1.531411113
J. Sebl10
WSep 27 · 15:50R. Muller1.67611101182J. Sebl2.10116128113WSep 27 · 14:50J. Sebl1.731111123T. Rein2.0073100LSep 22 · 18:00J. Sebl2.00411571V. Koutnik1.7311511113WSep 22 · 16:50J. Sebl1.6712128113T. Rein2.1010101181WSep 22 · 15:20V. Koutnik1.61611491J. Sebl2.2011511113LSep 22 · 14:50D. Zelezny2.10981211113J. Sebl1.67111110872WSep 20 · 10:06J. Sebl1.57151111113J. Cousin2.251313941LSep 20 · 08:55J. Sebl1.59101111892Z. Muhlhauser2.07127811113LSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl1.8591390V. Koutnik1.851115113WSep 20 · 06:55J. Sebl1.601114113J. Cousin2.2071280
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