TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vojtech Koutnik vs Daniel Zelezny 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911811118811
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:02 and never touched: 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Vojtech Koutnik @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-9
Point 91 set 5, 6-9 · our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 55.3%
91 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 13–7 Daniel Zelezny Daniel Zelezny has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Koutnik beat Zelezny 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:0255.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 0.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Koutnik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-7 in 20
Koutnik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1636 vs Zelezny 1614
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 60% vs Zelezny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 60% vs Zelezny 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik +1 · Zelezny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Koutnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 1.80 / Zelezny 1.909
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Koutnik)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13237709
Koutnik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 50 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Zelezny1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog59% won 10 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back46% 5 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back50% 3 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoutnik7wins
AwayZelezny3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnik66.7%4 of 6
AwayZelezny25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik6Zelezny4n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S2Koutnik6Zelezny4n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S3Koutnik5Zelezny5n = 10split evenly
S4Koutnik6Zelezny4n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S5Koutnik3Zelezny2n = 5Koutnik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoutnikZeleznyK − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.639.0+4.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 364 vs 124 / 22948.9%54.2%178 / 364 vs 124 / 229Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikKoutnik 1.80/Zelezny 1.91
Hit
What we said
55.3%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Vojtech Koutnik @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
2–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 13:25V. Koutnik4111811113D. Zelezny30711751
LOct 1 · 14:50V. Koutnik4011116662D. Zelezny48781111113
WSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik3951111123D. Zelezny331148101
WMay 16 · 16:55V. Koutnik511161011133D. Zelezny48511129112
WMar 29 · 09:25V. Koutnik4211118123D. Zelezny317311101
WMar 11 · 18:25V. Koutnik47118115123D. Zelezny45611711102
LMar 11 · 15:20V. Koutnik37811991D. Zelezny3711411113
WMar 9 · 16:55V. Koutnik511081111113D. Zelezny4512117782
LFeb 28 · 18:25V. Koutnik4411118592D. Zelezny39421111113
WFeb 16 · 16:55V. Koutnik44111111113D. Zelezny34137771
V. Koutnik10
WOct 3 · 16:25A. Brandtl Jr2.2515960V. Koutnik1.571711103WOct 3 · 14:00A. Brandtl Jr2.251061111112V. Koutnik1.57121194133WOct 3 · 13:25D. Zelezny2.00711751V. Koutnik1.7311811113LOct 3 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.53125111192A. Brandtl Jr2.381011135113LOct 3 · 10:55J. Sebl2.20111116113V. Koutnik1.6111591192WOct 1 · 17:50T. Rein2.601191141V. Koutnik1.4513115113WOct 1 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr2.25871171V. Koutnik1.5711117113WOct 1 · 15:50T. Rein2.50961141V. Koutnik1.5011118113LOct 1 · 14:50V. Koutnik1.7311116662D. Zelezny2.00781111113WSep 22 · 18:00J. Sebl2.00411571V. Koutnik1.7311511113
D. Zelezny10
WOct 3 · 15:55J. Cousin3.0084100D. Zelezny1.361111123LOct 3 · 14:31D. Zelezny1.9241111452J. Sebl1.78117911113LOct 3 · 13:25D. Zelezny2.00711751V. Koutnik1.7311811113WOct 3 · 11:55J. Sebl1.83118411122D. Zelezny1.83911118143WOct 3 · 11:25A. Brandtl Jr3.5011112101D. Zelezny1.2813311123WOct 2 · 22:25D. Zelezny1.32911119113J. Cousin3.0011981162WOct 2 · 21:25J. Cousin2.6391040D. Zelezny1.441112113WOct 2 · 20:25D. Zelezny2.005101111113J. Dohnal1.7311127892WOct 2 · 18:55T. Rein2.75711751D. Zelezny1.4011811113WOct 1 · 14:50V. Koutnik1.7311116662D. Zelezny2.00781111113
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