TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jean-Baptiste Cousin vs Daniel Zelezny 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8114111012––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched: 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJean-Baptiste Cousin above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 56 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 75.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jean-Baptiste Cousin 9–28 Daniel Zelezny Jean-Baptiste Cousin has won 9 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5475.1%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
clears by 1.7pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-28 in 37
Zelezny
Correct
gap of 19 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cousin 1442 vs Zelezny 1604
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cousin 60% vs Zelezny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cousin 50% vs Zelezny 70%
Zelezny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cousin +1 · Zelezny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCousin 3.00 / Zelezny 1.363
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Zelezny)+1.7pp
TT Cup · #13238173
Cousin3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 31 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back28% 16 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Zelezny1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 36 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCousin2wins
AwayZelezny8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZelezny leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCousinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZelezny75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cousin2Zelezny8n = 10Zelezny took 8 of 10
S2Cousin4Zelezny6n = 10Zelezny took 6 of 10
S3Cousin4Zelezny6n = 10Zelezny took 6 of 10
S4Cousin3Zelezny5n = 8Zelezny took 5 of 8
S5Cousin1Zelezny2n = 3Zelezny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCousinZeleznyC − ZBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.743.8−6.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCousinZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 432 vs 124 / 22953.2%54.2%230 / 432 vs 124 / 229Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyCousin 3.00/Zelezny 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 22:25J. Cousin4511981162D. Zelezny51911119113
LOct 2 · 21:25J. Cousin2391040D. Zelezny341112113
LJun 28 · 10:30J. Cousin521114131042D. Zelezny588161112113
WJun 28 · 07:55J. Cousin4891611123D. Zelezny4311148101
LJun 27 · 14:55J. Cousin4110111191D. Zelezny4212136113
LJun 4 · 18:00J. Cousin28711551D. Zelezny4211911113
WJun 4 · 14:50J. Cousin48511414143D. Zelezny551191112122
LApr 16 · 15:55J. Cousin32611871D. Zelezny3711411113
LMar 8 · 08:50J. Cousin30651181D. Zelezny4011117113
LMar 7 · 13:25J. Cousin3099120D. Zelezny361111143
J. Cousin10
WOct 3 · 14:55J. Cousin1.571151111113A. Brandtl Jr2.2571113552LOct 2 · 22:25D. Zelezny1.32911119113J. Cousin3.0011981162LOct 2 · 21:25J. Cousin2.6391040D. Zelezny1.441112113WOct 2 · 19:55T. Rein2.2051130J. Cousin1.611111153WOct 2 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.5011750J. Cousin2.501311113WSep 29 · 22:03R. Muller1.6151171192J. Cousin2.20113118113WSep 29 · 21:25J. Cousin2.50918511123R. Muller1.501116115102LSep 29 · 19:55B. Budik1.80111214133J. Cousin1.9081016111LSep 29 · 19:25T. Rein2.3811811153J. Cousin1.536112131LSep 20 · 10:06J. Sebl1.57151111113J. Cousin2.251313941
D. Zelezny10
WOct 3 · 15:25V. Koutnik1.8011981182D. Zelezny1.91711118113LOct 3 · 14:31D. Zelezny1.9241111452J. Sebl1.78117911113LOct 3 · 13:25D. Zelezny2.00711751V. Koutnik1.7311811113WOct 3 · 11:55J. Sebl1.83118411122D. Zelezny1.83911118143WOct 3 · 11:25A. Brandtl Jr3.5011112101D. Zelezny1.2813311123WOct 2 · 22:25D. Zelezny1.32911119113J. Cousin3.0011981162WOct 2 · 21:25J. Cousin2.6391040D. Zelezny1.441112113WOct 2 · 20:25D. Zelezny2.005101111113J. Dohnal1.7311127892WOct 2 · 18:55T. Rein2.75711751D. Zelezny1.4011811113WOct 1 · 17:20D. Zelezny1.6111811113T. Cerveny Jr2.20911661
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