TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jean-Baptiste Cousin vs Ales Brandtl Jr 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1175111113115115
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:54 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJean-Baptiste Cousin to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJean-Baptiste Cousin above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 4-5
Point 83 set 5, 4-5 · our read held Jean-Baptiste Cousin at 56.5%
83 points drawn · the score is 7 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jean-Baptiste Cousin 12–9 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 14:5456.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cousin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Cousin
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cousin 1452 vs Brandtl Jr 1494
Brandtl Jr
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cousin 60% vs Brandtl Jr 40%
Cousin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cousin 50% vs Brandtl Jr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cousin -2 · Brandtl Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Cousin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCousin 1.571 / Brandtl Jr 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Brandtl Jr)-0.9pp
TT Cup · #13238025
Cousin1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 59 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it82% 46 of 56
Brandtl Jr2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 74 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back12% 8 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCousin5wins
AwayBrandtl Jr5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCousin80%4 of 5
AwayBrandtl Jr80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cousin5Brandtl Jr5n = 10split evenly
S2Cousin6Brandtl Jr4n = 10Cousin took 6 of 10
S3Cousin8Brandtl Jr2n = 10Cousin took 8 of 10
S4Cousin4Brandtl Jr3n = 7Cousin took 4 of 7
S5Cousin0Brandtl Jr3n = 3Brandtl Jr took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCousinBrandtl JrC − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.236.7+3.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCousinBrandtl JrBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 431 vs 259 / 54153.4%47.9%230 / 431 vs 259 / 541Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Brandtl JrCousin 1.57/Brandtl Jr 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Cousin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cousin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 15:55J. Cousin4551113972A. Brandtl Jr531191111113
LAug 22 · 13:54J. Cousin36891181A. Brandtl Jr3911116113
LAug 22 · 11:55J. Cousin52128121192A. Brandtl Jr541411108113
WAug 21 · 17:20J. Cousin331111113A. Brandtl Jr209560
WAug 21 · 14:50J. Cousin4111811113A. Brandtl Jr29811551
LJul 8 · 21:50J. Cousin391014871A. Brandtl Jr46121211113
WJul 8 · 18:20J. Cousin4071111113A. Brandtl Jr29118731
WMay 8 · 20:50J. Cousin371411123A. Brandtl Jr30128100
WApr 2 · 22:00J. Cousin331111113A. Brandtl Jr183870
LApr 2 · 20:50J. Cousin46126101172A. Brandtl Jr491011125113
J. Cousin10
LOct 3 · 15:55J. Cousin3.0084100D. Zelezny1.361111123LOct 2 · 22:25D. Zelezny1.32911119113J. Cousin3.0011981162LOct 2 · 21:25J. Cousin2.6391040D. Zelezny1.441112113WOct 2 · 19:55T. Rein2.2051130J. Cousin1.611111153WOct 2 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.5011750J. Cousin2.501311113WSep 29 · 22:03R. Muller1.6151171192J. Cousin2.20113118113WSep 29 · 21:25J. Cousin2.50918511123R. Muller1.501116115102LSep 29 · 19:55B. Budik1.80111214133J. Cousin1.9081016111LSep 29 · 19:25T. Rein2.3811811153J. Cousin1.536112131LSep 20 · 10:06J. Sebl1.57151111113J. Cousin2.251313941
A. Brandtl Jr10
LOct 3 · 14:00A. Brandtl Jr2.251061111112V. Koutnik1.57121194133LOct 3 · 12:55J. Sebl1.331111113A. Brandtl Jr3.255580WOct 3 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.53125111192A. Brandtl Jr2.381011135113LOct 3 · 11:25A. Brandtl Jr3.5011112101D. Zelezny1.2813311123WSep 29 · 17:18A. Krcil1.734580A. Brandtl Jr2.001111113LSep 29 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.361111113A. Brandtl Jr3.008470LSep 29 · 15:50A. Brandtl Jr2.1093100L. Jirka1.671111123LSep 29 · 14:20A. Krcil2.00731111113A. Brandtl Jr1.7311117792LSep 28 · 09:55A. Brandtl Jr1.616121151Z. Muhlhauser2.2011146113WSep 28 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.839450A. Brandtl Jr1.831111113
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