TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Kolbusovsky vs Ondrej Sebek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012511711––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:16 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Sebek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Ondrej Sebek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 56 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Ondrej Sebek at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 25–41 Ondrej Sebek Michal Kolbusovsky has won 25 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1654.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sebek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-41 in 66
Sebek
Correct
gap of 16 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1266 vs Sebek 1253
Kolbusovsky
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 60% vs Sebek 0%
Kolbusovsky
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 40% vs Sebek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky -1 · Sebek -5
Sebek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sebek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebek form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 1.909 / Sebek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sebek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13246077
Kolbusovsky1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 56 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Sebek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 6 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it60% 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky3wins
AwaySebek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSebek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySebek87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky2Sebek8n = 10Sebek took 8 of 10
S2Kolbusovsky5Sebek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolbusovsky5Sebek5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolbusovsky4Sebek4n = 8split evenly
S5Kolbusovsky1Sebek3n = 4Sebek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbusovskySebekK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.442.1−3.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskySebekBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 437 vs 163 / 34244.4%47.7%194 / 437 vs 163 / 342Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SebekKolbusovsky 1.91/Sebek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 21:23M. Kolbusovsky4371111682O. Sebek46118511113
LSep 17 · 20:20M. Kolbusovsky37691481O. Sebek45111112113
LSep 10 · 13:19M. Kolbusovsky571211913122O. Sebek561461111143
WSep 10 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky46111176113O. Sebek4598111162
WJun 4 · 10:50M. Kolbusovsky3611311113O. Sebek37911981
LMay 26 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky4371141292O. Sebek491161110113
LMay 21 · 13:30M. Kolbusovsky2261060O. Sebek341112113
LMay 21 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky351071171O. Sebek4312119113
LMay 17 · 10:00M. Kolbusovsky238690O. Sebek331111113
WMay 17 · 07:50M. Kolbusovsky4291111113O. Sebek33118951
M. Kolbusovsky10
WOct 5 · 13:35S. Matousch1.8011891192M. Kolbusovsky1.90811114113LOct 5 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00541181J. Vintr1.3611113113WOct 5 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky2.381111410113S. Matousch1.5357111292WSep 24 · 21:28M. Kolbusovsky2.5011118113M. Dlask1.50481191WSep 24 · 20:20M. Dlask1.3693111192M. Kolbusovsky3.00111189113LSep 24 · 19:50R. Zeman1.101112113M. Kolbusovsky6.5071070LSep 24 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.206990M. Nemec1.611111113WSep 21 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil1.4044120M. Kolbusovsky2.701111143LSep 21 · 20:20J. Mach1.536111411113M. Kolbusovsky2.3811816742LSep 21 · 19:50R. Zeman1.111111113M. Kolbusovsky6.004870
O. Sebek10
LOct 5 · 11:50S. Matousch1.40611911113O. Sebek2.7511611582LOct 5 · 10:50O. Sebek2.751171181J. Vintr1.4013114113LSep 20 · 09:25M. Nemec1.301013911113O. Sebek3.40121111872LSep 20 · 08:50O. Sebek2.3510119121M. Nemec1.5312611143LSep 20 · 07:20R. Zeman1.3311119113O. Sebek3.00491161WSep 20 · 06:50L. Pour1.40511951O. Sebek2.7511811113WSep 17 · 21:23O. Sebek1.73118511113M. Kolbusovsky2.0071111682WSep 17 · 20:20O. Sebek1.36111112113M. Kolbusovsky3.00691481WSep 17 · 19:20O. Sebek3.4011101112113M. Nemec1.3081221462LSep 17 · 18:20O. Sebek2.106770M. Dlask1.671111113
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