TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Kolbusovsky vs Simon Matousch 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151174111012119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:16 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeSimon Matousch to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Simon Matousch at 61.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 4–4 Simon Matousch Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:1661.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Matousch
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1257 vs Matousch 1373
Matousch
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 60% vs Matousch 20%
Kolbusovsky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 40% vs Matousch 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky +2 · Matousch -4
Matousch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Matousch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 2.375 / Matousch 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Matousch)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13245779
Kolbusovsky2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 24) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 56 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Matousch1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 21 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it61% 17 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky4wins
AwayMatousch4wins
1 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky75%3 of 4
AwayMatousch75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky4Matousch4n = 8split evenly
S2Kolbusovsky5Matousch3n = 8Kolbusovsky took 5 of 8
S3Kolbusovsky4Matousch4n = 8split evenly
S4Kolbusovsky2Matousch4n = 6Matousch took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyMatouschK − MBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match37.236.2+1.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 447 vs 147 / 33045%44.6%201 / 447 vs 147 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatouschKolbusovsky 2.38/Matousch 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Matousch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 21 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky50891111113S. Matousch4311118582
LAug 11 · 10:04M. Kolbusovsky381013781S. Matousch45121111113
WAug 11 · 06:55M. Kolbusovsky341211113S. Matousch2410860
LJul 24 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky34691181S. Matousch3911116113
LJun 29 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky35118791S. Matousch3961111113
LMay 29 · 08:25M. Kolbusovsky32813561S. Matousch44111111113
WMar 13 · 15:00M. Kolbusovsky4211119113S. Matousch35871191
WMar 13 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky331111113S. Matousch214980
M. Kolbusovsky10
LOct 5 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00541181J. Vintr1.3611113113WSep 24 · 21:28M. Kolbusovsky2.5011118113M. Dlask1.50481191WSep 24 · 20:20M. Dlask1.3693111192M. Kolbusovsky3.00111189113LSep 24 · 19:50R. Zeman1.101112113M. Kolbusovsky6.5071070LSep 24 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.206990M. Nemec1.611111113WSep 21 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil1.4044120M. Kolbusovsky2.701111143LSep 21 · 20:20J. Mach1.536111411113M. Kolbusovsky2.3811816742LSep 21 · 19:50R. Zeman1.111111113M. Kolbusovsky6.004870LSep 21 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.381091171Z. Vyskocil1.5312114113LSep 21 · 14:00T. Cerveny Jr1.20111111113M. Kolbusovsky3.80881391
S. Matousch10
LOct 2 · 21:28T. Cerveny Jr1.36911811113S. Matousch3.0011911572LOct 2 · 20:20S. Matousch2.207830P. Cibik1.611111113LOct 2 · 19:20S. Matousch1.7311109121Z. Vyskocil2.0071211143LOct 2 · 18:20S. Matousch2.757780T. Cerveny Jr1.401111113WSep 30 · 22:00L. Vich1.738114111S. Matousch2.0011211133LSep 30 · 20:50S. Matousch2.10101111462L. Vich1.67128311113WSep 30 · 19:20P. Cibik1.5791241182S. Matousch2.251110112113WSep 30 · 18:50J. Mach1.618660S. Matousch2.201111113LSep 30 · 13:33F. Dvorak1.2812148123S. Matousch3.50101211101WSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113
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