TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Cerveny Jr vs Simon Matousch 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911119811115117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 93 set 5, 11-7
93 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 24–14 Simon Matousch Simon Matousch has won 14 of their 38 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Cerveny Jr beat Matousch 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerveny Jr 1.363 / Matousch 3.00
TT Cup · #13235223
Cerveny Jr1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 68 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it83% 55 of 66
Matousch3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 24 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back12% 5 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerveny Jr8wins
AwayMatousch2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerveny Jr leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerveny Jr100%6 of 6
AwayMatousch50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerveny Jr6Matousch4n = 10Cerveny Jr took 6 of 10
S2Cerveny Jr7Matousch3n = 10Cerveny Jr took 7 of 10
S3Cerveny Jr8Matousch2n = 10Cerveny Jr took 8 of 10
S4Cerveny Jr3Matousch1n = 4Cerveny Jr took 3 of 4
S5Cerveny Jr2Matousch1n = 3Cerveny Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCerveny JrMatouschC − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.131.4+5.7per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCerveny JrMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime337 / 610 vs 147 / 32955.3%44.7%337 / 610 vs 147 / 329Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Cerveny JrCerveny Jr 1.36/Matousch 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–2
Cerveny Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 18:20T. Cerveny Jr331111113S. Matousch227780
LSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr178540S. Matousch331111113
WSep 21 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr351211123S. Matousch27107100
WSep 3 · 14:04T. Cerveny Jr331111113S. Matousch113530
WSep 3 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr45118411113S. Matousch4081111552
LAug 25 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr49106161162S. Matousch571211149113
WMay 28 · 06:55T. Cerveny Jr4271111133S. Matousch391198111
WFeb 24 · 08:55T. Cerveny Jr341111123S. Matousch1945100
WFeb 20 · 13:20T. Cerveny Jr341211113S. Matousch2510780
WFeb 17 · 09:50T. Cerveny Jr49811116133S. Matousch41115311112
T. Cerveny Jr10
LOct 2 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil2.104111411113T. Cerveny Jr1.6711716572LOct 2 · 19:50T. Cerveny Jr1.3698111192P. Cibik3.00111165113WOct 2 · 18:20S. Matousch2.757780T. Cerveny Jr1.401111113LOct 1 · 17:20D. Zelezny1.6111811113T. Cerveny Jr2.20911661LOct 1 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr2.25871171V. Koutnik1.5711117113LOct 1 · 15:20T. Cerveny Jr2.2011104101D. Zelezny1.6181211123LOct 1 · 14:20T. Cerveny Jr1.3691011101T. Rein3.0011129123WSep 30 · 14:05T. Cerveny Jr1.401111123T. Rein2.7589100LSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113WSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.4011211113T. Rein2.75811651
S. Matousch10
LOct 2 · 20:20S. Matousch2.207830P. Cibik1.611111113LOct 2 · 19:20S. Matousch1.7311109121Z. Vyskocil2.0071211143LOct 2 · 18:20S. Matousch2.757780T. Cerveny Jr1.401111113WSep 30 · 22:00L. Vich1.738114111S. Matousch2.0011211133LSep 30 · 20:50S. Matousch2.10101111462L. Vich1.67128311113WSep 30 · 19:20P. Cibik1.5791241182S. Matousch2.251110112113WSep 30 · 18:50J. Mach1.618660S. Matousch2.201111113LSep 30 · 13:33F. Dvorak1.2812148123S. Matousch3.50101211101WSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113LSep 30 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.3091111113S. Matousch3.40118681
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