TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Mach vs Simon Matousch 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611611––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:45 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Mach to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Mach above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 1-3
Point 40 set 3, 1-3 · our read held Jakub Mach at 57.7%
40 points drawn · the score is 13 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jakub Mach 6–5 Simon Matousch Simon Matousch has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4557.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mach
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mach 1563 vs Matousch 1360
Mach
Wrong
both rated, 203 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mach 80% vs Matousch 20%
Mach
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mach 80% vs Matousch 30%
Mach
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mach +4 · Matousch -1
Mach
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Mach) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMach 1.615 / Matousch 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Mach)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13221155
Mach1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 21) · back after a break
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 44 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it77% 34 of 44
Matousch2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog28% won 20 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMach5wins
AwayMatousch5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMach66.7%4 of 6
AwayMatousch75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mach6Matousch4n = 10Mach took 6 of 10
S2Mach6Matousch4n = 10Mach took 6 of 10
S3Mach5Matousch5n = 10split evenly
S4Mach1Matousch4n = 5Matousch took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachMatouschMach − MatouschBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.333.3+1.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 397 vs 148 / 33048.6%44.9%193 / 397 vs 148 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MachMach 1.61/Matousch 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Mach · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Matousch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 6 · 10:55J. Mach331111113S. Matousch198740
LApr 10 · 21:28J. Mach43111110742S. Matousch48591211113
WApr 10 · 19:50J. Mach521012116133S. Matousch491210511112
LMar 20 · 23:05J. Mach2221190S. Matousch351113113
LMar 20 · 20:50J. Mach208480S. Matousch331111113
WJan 31 · 19:07J. Mach331111113S. Matousch125340
LJan 31 · 15:55J. Mach31611771S. Matousch4011711113
WOct 29 · 23:15J. Mach4011711113S. Matousch33611791
LOct 29 · 19:40J. Mach361171081S. Matousch4281112113
WMay 26 · 18:40J. Mach331111113S. Matousch226790
J. Mach10
LSep 30 · 19:50L. Vich1.731111113J. Mach2.009790WSep 21 · 21:55J. Mach1.40961112113R. Zeman2.75111161072WSep 21 · 20:20J. Mach1.536111411113M. Kolbusovsky2.3811816742WSep 21 · 19:20J. Mach2.0011811113Z. Vyskocil1.73911671WSep 21 · 18:20J. Mach1.5015411113R. Zeman2.501311931LSep 15 · 21:50R. Zeman2.651111113J. Mach1.426480WSep 15 · 20:20M. Nemec2.63101171172J. Mach1.44129119113LSep 15 · 19:50R. Zeman3.00811128113J. Mach1.36119101192WSep 15 · 18:50J. Mach1.571111133M. Dlask2.2536110WAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143
S. Matousch10
WSep 30 · 19:20P. Cibik1.5791241182S. Matousch2.251110112113LSep 30 · 13:33F. Dvorak1.2812148123S. Matousch3.50101211101WSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113LSep 30 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.3091111113S. Matousch3.40118681LSep 30 · 10:50S. Matousch4.3312512342T. Rein1.2010111011113LSep 26 · 18:04R. Zeman1.25361112113S. Matousch3.75111161062WSep 26 · 17:25O. Hula1.571011118102S. Matousch2.25125911123LSep 26 · 16:25S. Matousch3.757370R. Zeman1.251111113LSep 26 · 14:55P. Cibik1.57121111113S. Matousch2.25143771WSep 21 · 13:30S. Matousch1.831112123J. Vintr1.83510100
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