TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Mach vs Radek Zeman 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Jakub Mach
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9116111161210117
Radek Zeman
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:19 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Mach to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Mach above · Radek Zeman below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Mach at 65.5%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Mach 16–5 Radek Zeman Radek Zeman has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Mach beat Zeman 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Mach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-5 in 21
Mach
Correct
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mach 1572 vs Zeman 1470
Mach
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mach 80% vs Zeman 40%
Mach
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mach 80% vs Zeman 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mach +3 · Zeman +2
Mach
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Mach) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMach 1.40 / Zeman 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Mach)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13173242
Mach1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 41 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it83% 19 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it75% 33 of 44
Zeman2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 33 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMach8wins
AwayZeman2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMach leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMach83.3%5 of 6
AwayZeman25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mach6Zeman4n = 10Mach took 6 of 10
S2Mach5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S3Mach7Zeman3n = 10Mach took 7 of 10
S4Mach6Zeman1n = 7Mach took 6 of 7
S5Mach2Zeman1n = 3Mach took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachZemanM − ZBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.736.4+4.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 408 vs 326 / 61348.5%53.2%198 / 408 vs 326 / 613Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachMach 1.40/Zeman 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Mach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 21:55J. Mach49961112113R. Zeman45111161072
WSep 21 · 18:20J. Mach4115411113R. Zeman361311931
LSep 15 · 21:50J. Mach186480R. Zeman331111113
LSep 15 · 19:50J. Mach50119101192R. Zeman50811128113
WAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach3741111113R. Zeman37119891
WAug 23 · 15:18J. Mach341211113R. Zeman1910270
WAug 9 · 11:20J. Mach491110116113R. Zeman4251281162
WJul 25 · 14:25J. Mach4618125113R. Zeman4416101171
WJul 25 · 11:25J. Mach381116113R. Zeman2631490
WJul 22 · 19:50J. Mach4591111143R. Zeman321172121
J. Mach10
WSep 21 · 20:20J. Mach1.536111411113M. Kolbusovsky2.3811816742WSep 21 · 19:20J. Mach2.0011811113Z. Vyskocil1.73911671WSep 21 · 18:20J. Mach1.5015411113R. Zeman2.501311931LSep 15 · 21:50R. Zeman2.651111113J. Mach1.426480WSep 15 · 20:20M. Nemec2.63101171172J. Mach1.44129119113LSep 15 · 19:50R. Zeman3.00811128113J. Mach1.36119101192WSep 15 · 18:50J. Mach1.571111133M. Dlask2.2536110WAug 25 · 21:55M. Nemec1.7054120J. Mach1.961111143WAug 25 · 20:20J. Mach1.571111811113M. Dlask2.2599111342WAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach1.5041111113R. Zeman2.50119891
R. Zeman10
WSep 21 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.4037100R. Zeman2.751111123WSep 21 · 19:50R. Zeman1.111111113M. Kolbusovsky6.004870LSep 21 · 18:20J. Mach1.5015411113R. Zeman2.501311931LSep 20 · 09:55L. Pour2.631131111113R. Zeman1.4481171372LSep 20 · 08:20R. Zeman1.421174101L. Pour2.6591111123WSep 20 · 07:20R. Zeman1.3311119113O. Sebek3.00491161WSep 20 · 06:20R. Zeman1.41131111113M. Nemec2.60155381WSep 15 · 21:50R. Zeman2.651111113J. Mach1.426480WSep 15 · 19:50R. Zeman3.00811128113J. Mach1.36119101192LAug 25 · 19:20J. Mach1.5041111113R. Zeman2.50119891
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