TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Simon Matousch vs Pavel Cibik 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811311––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 51 set 3, 3-11 · our read held Pavel Cibik at 60.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 29–29 Pavel Cibik Dead even across their 58 meetings.
Last 10 · 2–8Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0560.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-29 in 58
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1389 vs Cibik 1563
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 174 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 40% vs Cibik 100%
Cibik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 40% vs Cibik 70%
Cibik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -2 · Cibik +6
Cibik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Cibik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 2.20 / Cibik 1.615
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Cibik)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232433
Matousch2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 24 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back12% 5 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Cibik1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 78 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it79% 57 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch2wins
AwayCibik8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch40%2 of 5
AwayCibik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch5Cibik5n = 10split evenly
S2Matousch4Cibik6n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S3Matousch4Cibik6n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S4Matousch0Cibik8n = 8Cibik took 8 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschCibikM − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.138.6−3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 328 vs 324 / 69144.8%46.9%147 / 328 vs 324 / 691Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CibikMatousch 2.20/Cibik 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 19:20S. Matousch451110112113P. Cibik4491241182
LSep 26 · 14:55S. Matousch31143771P. Cibik45121111113
LSep 16 · 21:23S. Matousch31851171P. Cibik3411111113
LSep 16 · 20:20S. Matousch3910111081P. Cibik4012512113
WSep 14 · 20:20S. Matousch331111113P. Cibik196760
LSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch4271111942P. Cibik51119911113
LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch30119371P. Cibik4181111113
LSep 1 · 10:20S. Matousch35118791P. Cibik3851111113
LAug 4 · 16:20S. Matousch381011981P. Cibik4112711113
LJul 24 · 13:50S. Matousch279990P. Cibik331111113
S. Matousch10
LOct 2 · 19:20S. Matousch1.7311109121Z. Vyskocil2.0071211143LOct 2 · 18:20S. Matousch2.757780T. Cerveny Jr1.401111113WSep 30 · 22:00L. Vich1.738114111S. Matousch2.0011211133LSep 30 · 20:50S. Matousch2.10101111462L. Vich1.67128311113WSep 30 · 19:20P. Cibik1.5791241182S. Matousch2.251110112113WSep 30 · 18:50J. Mach1.618660S. Matousch2.201111113LSep 30 · 13:33F. Dvorak1.2812148123S. Matousch3.50101211101WSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113LSep 30 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.3091111113S. Matousch3.40118681LSep 30 · 10:50S. Matousch4.3312512342T. Rein1.2010111011113
P. Cibik10
WOct 2 · 19:50T. Cerveny Jr1.3698111192P. Cibik3.00111165113WOct 2 · 18:50P. Cibik2.00811811123Z. Vyskocil1.73116118102WOct 1 · 22:25P. Cibik1.5711911113R. Zeman2.25811591WOct 1 · 21:25M. Dlask3.50511571P. Cibik1.2811611113WOct 1 · 20:25P. Cibik1.5011119113M. Nemec2.50991171WOct 1 · 18:55R. Zeman2.75711191P. Cibik1.4011114113LSep 30 · 21:29J. Mach1.571111113P. Cibik2.250890LSep 30 · 20:20P. Cibik2.5081111992J. Mach1.50119411113LSep 30 · 19:20P. Cibik1.5791241182S. Matousch2.251110112113WSep 30 · 18:20P. Cibik1.8011121211113L. Vich1.91131014752
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