TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Cibik vs Zbynek Vyskocil 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111168111181210
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:30 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbynek Vyskocil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Zbynek Vyskocil below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 96 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Zbynek Vyskocil at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 37–45 Zbynek Vyskocil Pavel Cibik has won 37 of their 82 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vyskocil
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
37-45 in 82
Vyskocil
Wrong
gap of 8 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1553 vs Vyskocil 1464
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 80% vs Vyskocil 40%
Cibik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 60% vs Vyskocil 30%
Cibik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik +4 · Vyskocil +1
Cibik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vyskocil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vyskocil form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 2.00 / Vyskocil 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cibik)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13231886
Cibik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 66 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Vyskocil1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite54% won 62 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it69% 48 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik4wins
AwayVyskocil6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVyskocil leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik66.7%2 of 3
AwayVyskocil71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik3Vyskocil7n = 10Vyskocil took 7 of 10
S2Cibik7Vyskocil3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S3Cibik3Vyskocil7n = 10Vyskocil took 7 of 10
S4Cibik3Vyskocil4n = 7Vyskocil took 4 of 7
S5Cibik2Vyskocil2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikVyskocilC − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.239.4−0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikVyskocilBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 690 vs 284 / 58046.8%49%323 / 690 vs 284 / 580Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VyskocilCibik 2.00/Vyskocil 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vyskocil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 18:50P. Cibik50811811123Z. Vyskocil46116118102
WSep 20 · 19:50P. Cibik4111118113Z. Vyskocil34991151
LSep 16 · 18:50P. Cibik4261191152Z. Vyskocil46117116113
WSep 14 · 21:30P. Cibik568141111123Z. Vyskocil511112513102
LSep 14 · 19:20P. Cibik35911691Z. Vyskocil3711411113
LSep 7 · 19:20P. Cibik30811110Z. Vyskocil371113133
LSep 6 · 13:53P. Cibik4591111682Z. Vyskocil49119711113
LSep 6 · 11:50P. Cibik2678110Z. Vyskocil351111133
LAug 30 · 18:20P. Cibik34117791Z. Vyskocil4181111113
WAug 11 · 21:20P. Cibik331111113Z. Vyskocil189540
P. Cibik10
WOct 1 · 22:25P. Cibik1.5711911113R. Zeman2.25811591WOct 1 · 21:25M. Dlask3.50511571P. Cibik1.2811611113WOct 1 · 20:25P. Cibik1.5011119113M. Nemec2.50991171WOct 1 · 18:55R. Zeman2.75711191P. Cibik1.4011114113LSep 30 · 21:29J. Mach1.571111113P. Cibik2.250890LSep 30 · 20:20P. Cibik2.5081111992J. Mach1.50119411113LSep 30 · 19:20P. Cibik1.5791241182S. Matousch2.251110112113WSep 30 · 18:20P. Cibik1.8011121211113L. Vich1.91131014752LSep 26 · 18:34O. Hula1.671111113P. Cibik2.107690WSep 26 · 16:55P. Cibik1.571111113R. Zeman2.255510
Z. Vyskocil10
WOct 2 · 19:20S. Matousch1.7311109121Z. Vyskocil2.0071211143WSep 23 · 21:59L. Vich1.910Z. Vyskocil1.803LSep 23 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.80117511102L. Vich1.91811116123WSep 23 · 19:20M. Dlask2.635470Z. Vyskocil1.441111113LSep 23 · 18:50M. Nemec2.5061112113Z. Vyskocil1.501181051LSep 21 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil1.4044120M. Kolbusovsky2.701111143LSep 21 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.4037100R. Zeman2.751111123LSep 21 · 19:20J. Mach2.0011811113Z. Vyskocil1.73911671WSep 21 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.381091171Z. Vyskocil1.5312114113LSep 20 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil1.8510850L. Vich1.851211113
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