TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Marek Dlask vs Pavel Cibik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511116511711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:21 and never touched: 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Dlask above · Pavel Cibik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Pavel Cibik at 77.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Marek Dlask 1–7 Pavel Cibik Marek Dlask has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2177.5%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 0.3pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Cibik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Cibik
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dlask 1323 vs Cibik 1528
Cibik
Correct
both rated, 205 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dlask 20% vs Cibik 40%
Cibik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dlask 30% vs Cibik 50%
Cibik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dlask -1 · Cibik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Cibik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDlask 3.50 / Cibik 1.285
Signal prob.23% / 78%
Edge (Cibik)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13226947
Dlask3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog40% won 23 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Cibik1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 74 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it78% 53 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeDlask1wins
AwayCibik7wins
3 of 8 to a deciderCibik leads 7–1, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDlask33.3%1 of 3
AwayCibik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dlask3Cibik5n = 8Cibik took 5 of 8
S2Dlask1Cibik7n = 8Cibik took 7 of 8
S3Dlask2Cibik6n = 8Cibik took 6 of 8
S4Dlask1Cibik3n = 4Cibik took 3 of 4
S5Dlask1Cibik2n = 3Cibik took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away450%
These 8 meetings
MetricDlaskCibikD − CBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match32.639.1−6.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDlaskCibikBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 304 vs 320 / 68747%46.6%143 / 304 vs 320 / 687Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CibikDlask 3.50/Cibik 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 13 · 21:25M. Dlask2491230P. Cibik361114113
LAug 4 · 19:50M. Dlask229670P. Cibik331111113
LJun 11 · 18:20M. Dlask47111061192P. Cibik44212118113
LDec 17 · 21:50M. Dlask3091290P. Cibik361114113
LNov 12 · 19:40M. Dlask4371111862P. Cibik47117711113
LOct 4 · 19:50M. Dlask341176101P. Cibik4281111123
LJul 9 · 19:50M. Dlask186840P. Cibik331111113
WJun 30 · 18:40M. Dlask43113117113P. Cibik4251181172
M. Dlask10
WOct 1 · 21:55M. Dlask1.731111123M. Nemec2.0085100LOct 1 · 19:55R. Zeman1.5311119113M. Dlask2.38951181WOct 1 · 19:25M. Nemec1.919814111M. Dlask1.80111112133LSep 24 · 21:28M. Kolbusovsky2.5011118113M. Dlask1.50481191LSep 24 · 20:20M. Dlask1.3693111192M. Kolbusovsky3.00111189113LSep 24 · 19:20M. Dlask1.83711991M. Nemec1.8311911113LSep 24 · 18:20M. Dlask2.2065130R. Zeman1.611111153WSep 23 · 21:28M. Nemec1.831110811112M. Dlask1.83712115133WSep 23 · 20:20M. Dlask1.73520113113M. Nemec2.00111891192LSep 23 · 19:20M. Dlask2.635470Z. Vyskocil1.441111113
P. Cibik10
WOct 1 · 20:25P. Cibik1.5011119113M. Nemec2.50991171WOct 1 · 18:55R. Zeman2.75711191P. Cibik1.4011114113LSep 30 · 21:29J. Mach1.571111113P. Cibik2.250890LSep 30 · 20:20P. Cibik2.5081111992J. Mach1.50119411113LSep 30 · 19:20P. Cibik1.5791241182S. Matousch2.251110112113WSep 30 · 18:20P. Cibik1.8011121211113L. Vich1.91131014752LSep 26 · 18:34O. Hula1.671111113P. Cibik2.107690WSep 26 · 16:55P. Cibik1.571111113R. Zeman2.255510LSep 26 · 15:55P. Cibik1.80981113102O. Hula1.911111511123WSep 26 · 14:55P. Cibik1.57121111113S. Matousch2.25143771
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.