TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Cibik vs Jakub Mach 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119114911911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Mach to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Jakub Mach below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Jakub Mach at 62.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 17–27 Jakub Mach Pavel Cibik has won 17 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1262.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Mach
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-27 in 44
Mach
Correct
gap of 10 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1536 vs Mach 1526
Cibik
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 40% vs Mach 60%
Mach
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 60% vs Mach 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik -1 · Mach -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Mach) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 2.50 / Mach 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Mach)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13221195
Cibik2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 67 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Mach1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 44 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it77% 34 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik1wins
AwayMach9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMach leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik25%1 of 4
AwayMach100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik4Mach6n = 10Mach took 6 of 10
S2Cibik1Mach9n = 10Mach took 9 of 10
S3Cibik3Mach7n = 10Mach took 7 of 10
S4Cibik1Mach5n = 6Mach took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikMachC − MBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match29.438.9−9.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikMachBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 685 vs 190 / 39446.6%48.2%319 / 685 vs 190 / 394Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MachCibik 2.50/Mach 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Mach · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 13:53P. Cibik169250J. Mach331111113
WAug 9 · 12:50P. Cibik4011711113J. Mach37911981
LJul 27 · 22:25P. Cibik194780J. Mach331111113
LJul 27 · 21:25P. Cibik29681141J. Mach3911116113
LJul 25 · 13:25P. Cibik2687110J. Mach351111133
LJun 11 · 21:25P. Cibik341241081J. Mach44101112113
LJun 11 · 20:50P. Cibik3411311272J. Mach46711611113
LJun 6 · 12:25P. Cibik27115831J. Mach3851111113
LApr 26 · 09:25P. Cibik391112881J. Mach45131011113
LApr 26 · 08:20P. Cibik3091560J. Mach391117113
P. Cibik10
LSep 30 · 21:29J. Mach1.571111113P. Cibik2.250890LSep 30 · 19:20P. Cibik1.5791241182S. Matousch2.251110112113WSep 30 · 18:20P. Cibik1.8011121211113L. Vich1.91131014752LSep 26 · 18:34O. Hula1.671111113P. Cibik2.107690WSep 26 · 16:55P. Cibik1.571111113R. Zeman2.255510LSep 26 · 15:55P. Cibik1.80981113102O. Hula1.911111511123WSep 26 · 14:55P. Cibik1.57121111113S. Matousch2.25143771WSep 24 · 22:30P. Cibik1.83119118113M. Juhasz1.8391161172LSep 24 · 20:55A. Krcil1.3611711113P. Cibik3.00811991WSep 24 · 20:25M. Juhasz1.618611131P. Cibik2.2011116153
J. Mach10
WSep 30 · 21:29J. Mach1.571111113P. Cibik2.250890LSep 30 · 19:50L. Vich1.731111113J. Mach2.009790LSep 30 · 18:50J. Mach1.618660S. Matousch2.201111113WSep 21 · 21:55J. Mach1.40961112113R. Zeman2.75111161072WSep 21 · 20:20J. Mach1.536111411113M. Kolbusovsky2.3811816742WSep 21 · 19:20J. Mach2.0011811113Z. Vyskocil1.73911671WSep 21 · 18:20J. Mach1.5015411113R. Zeman2.501311931LSep 15 · 21:50R. Zeman2.651111113J. Mach1.426480WSep 15 · 20:20M. Nemec2.63101171172J. Mach1.44129119113LSep 15 · 19:50R. Zeman3.00811128113J. Mach1.36119101192
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