TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vojtech Koubek vs Erik Mares 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171151210––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:22 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koubek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Koubek above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 56 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Vojtech Koubek at 54.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koubek 52–29 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 29 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2254.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Koubek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
52-29 in 81
Koubek
Correct
gap of 23 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koubek 1778 vs Mares 1813
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koubek 0% vs Mares 60%
Mares
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koubek 20% vs Mares 50%
Mares
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koubek -7 · Mares +2
Koubek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Koubek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koubek form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoubek 1.727 / Mares 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Koubek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243992
Koubek1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite48% won 32 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Mares2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog45% won 107 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back25% 31 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoubek6wins
AwayMares4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoubek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoubek80%4 of 5
AwayMares60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koubek5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S2Koubek6Mares4n = 10Koubek took 6 of 10
S3Koubek2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S4Koubek6Mares1n = 7Koubek took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoubekMaresK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.839.0−2.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoubekMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 375 vs 607 / 121550.1%50%188 / 375 vs 607 / 1215Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.340.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoubekKoubek 1.73/Mares 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Koubek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Koubek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 14:30V. Koubek48315411153E. Mares551113117132
LSep 16 · 21:28V. Koubek165740E. Mares331111113
LSep 16 · 20:00V. Koubek5112149882E. Mares5510121111113
LSep 15 · 20:00V. Koubek248880E. Mares331111113
WSep 1 · 17:30V. Koubek4061111123E. Mares371188101
WSep 1 · 15:00V. Koubek4312119113E. Mares341051181
WAug 31 · 17:30V. Koubek4311911123E. Mares324117101
LAug 31 · 14:00V. Koubek176740E. Mares331111113
WAug 27 · 17:28V. Koubek4411139113E. Mares387111191
WAug 27 · 16:00V. Koubek4211136123E. Mares4081111101
V. Koubek10
WOct 5 · 16:30J. Ruzicka2.101011951V. Koubek1.6712711113LOct 5 · 14:30M. Huk2.5011119113V. Koubek1.50661151LSep 24 · 17:00T. Postelt2.206121111113V. Koubek1.6111147452LSep 24 · 16:00T. Postelt2.251411113V. Koubek1.5712650LSep 24 · 15:00J. Kycelt3.25111110113V. Koubek1.33771291LSep 24 · 14:30V. Koubek2.00125761J. Vales1.73101111113LSep 21 · 17:30T. Postelt2.381111113V. Koubek1.536570LSep 21 · 16:30T. Postelt2.201111113V. Koubek1.618770WSep 21 · 15:30V. Koubek2.6371111113J. Zajicek1.44117551WSep 21 · 14:30E. Mares2.101113117132V. Koubek1.67315411153
E. Mares10
LOct 5 · 16:00E. Mares1.50912961M. Huk2.50111011113WOct 5 · 14:00E. Mares1.57115129113J. Ruzicka2.25711101192WOct 5 · 13:06E. Mares1.571112113J. Ruzicka2.2571090LOct 5 · 12:00L. Zeman1.7351111113E. Mares2.00116971LOct 5 · 11:00M. Huk2.501081311113E. Mares1.50121111992WOct 5 · 10:30E. Mares1.671111113J. Ruzicka2.109890LOct 4 · 20:59T. Postelt1.83118116113E. Mares1.8761161142WOct 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8311811143J. Vales1.839119121LOct 4 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.2071211113E. Mares1.611110561LSep 21 · 14:30E. Mares2.101113117132V. Koubek1.67315411153
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