TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Erik Mares vs Martin Huk 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111210911611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:47 and never touched: 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingErik Mares above · Martin Huk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Erik Mares at 60.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 19–28 Martin Huk Erik Mares has won 19 of their 47 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Huk beat Mares 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4760.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 6.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-28 in 47
Huk
Correct
gap of 9 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1797 vs Huk 1833
Huk
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Huk 80%
Huk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 40% vs Huk 60%
Huk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -1 · Huk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Mares) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Huk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.50 / Huk 2.50
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Mares)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243663
Mares1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 153 of 272
Up 2–0, closes it88% 98 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it71% 131 of 185
Huk2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 118 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back27% 40 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares2wins
AwayHuk8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHuk leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares50%2 of 4
AwayHuk100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares4Huk6n = 10Huk took 6 of 10
S2Mares8Huk2n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S3Mares5Huk5n = 10split evenly
S4Mares0Huk6n = 6Huk took 6 of 6
S5Mares0Huk5n = 5Huk took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresHukM − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.340.1−0.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresHukBasisWin rate · lifetime607 / 1216 vs 772 / 157449.9%49.1%607 / 1216 vs 772 / 1574Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.50/Huk 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.7%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Huk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 11:00E. Mares52121111992M. Huk531081311113
LSep 26 · 08:58E. Mares501112511112M. Huk547101113133
LSep 26 · 08:30E. Mares28101080M. Huk351212113
LSep 25 · 16:00E. Mares47101111692M. Huk46126611113
WSep 25 · 12:00E. Mares331111113M. Huk216690
LSep 17 · 01:30E. Mares2791170M. Huk351113113
LSep 13 · 08:00E. Mares47511119112M. Huk49116811133
WSep 12 · 06:00E. Mares331111113M. Huk172960
LSep 3 · 10:00E. Mares4361114662M. Huk501151211113
LSep 2 · 03:28E. Mares33511891M. Huk4111811113
E. Mares10
LOct 5 · 15:30V. Koubek1.731111123E. Mares2.0075100WOct 5 · 14:00E. Mares1.57115129113J. Ruzicka2.25711101192WOct 5 · 13:06E. Mares1.571112113J. Ruzicka2.2571090LOct 5 · 12:00L. Zeman1.7351111113E. Mares2.00116971LOct 5 · 11:00M. Huk2.501081311113E. Mares1.50121111992WOct 5 · 10:30E. Mares1.671111113J. Ruzicka2.109890LOct 4 · 20:59T. Postelt1.83118116113E. Mares1.8761161142WOct 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8311811143J. Vales1.839119121LOct 4 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.2071211113E. Mares1.611110561LOct 4 · 18:00E. Mares2.001147101T. Postelt1.7341111123
M. Huk10
LOct 5 · 15:00J. Ruzicka1.831171310123M. Huk1.839111112102WOct 5 · 14:30M. Huk2.5011119113V. Koubek1.50661151WOct 5 · 13:30M. Huk2.25111111113L. Zeman1.57421331WOct 5 · 12:30M. Huk1.838111114113J. Ruzicka1.83118131252WOct 5 · 11:00M. Huk2.501081311113E. Mares1.50121111992LOct 5 · 10:00L. Zeman1.501111911113M. Huk2.5013411842LSep 30 · 17:30M. Huk2.10112120M. Jezek1.651114143LSep 30 · 16:00M. Jezek1.83119119113M. Huk1.8381161172WSep 30 · 15:00R. Urbaniec2.10101291142M. Huk1.671210116113WSep 30 · 14:30M. Huk3.75114611113P. Gireth1.2551111562
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