TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Erik Mares vs Jiri Ruzicka 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1175111210911119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:52 and never touched: 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Jiri Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Erik Mares at 57.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 10–8 Jiri Ruzicka Jiri Ruzicka has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 1h before this match
Mares beat Ruzicka 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5257.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 6.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Mares
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1801 vs Ruzicka 1831
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Ruzicka 20%
Mares
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 40% vs Ruzicka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Ruzicka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Mares) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.571 / Ruzicka 2.25
Signal prob.58% / 43%
Edge (Mares)-6.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13244147
Mares1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 153 of 272
Up 2–0, closes it88% 98 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it71% 131 of 185
Ruzicka2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 133 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back20% 42 of 213
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares5wins
AwayRuzicka5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares62.5%5 of 8
AwayRuzickan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares8Ruzicka2n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S2Mares6Ruzicka4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares4Ruzicka6n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S4Mares4Ruzicka4n = 8split evenly
S5Mares1Ruzicka3n = 4Ruzicka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresRuzickaM − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match44.541.7+2.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime606 / 1214 vs 699 / 141649.9%49.4%606 / 1214 vs 699 / 1416Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.57/Ruzicka 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.5%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 10:30E. Mares331111113J. Ruzicka269890
WOct 2 · 13:30E. Mares4616811113J. Ruzicka391411951
LOct 2 · 12:00E. Mares32411891J. Ruzicka4111811113
LOct 2 · 08:00E. Mares4112111081J. Ruzicka46101312113
LSep 17 · 00:00E. Mares551213101192J. Ruzicka571015129113
LSep 3 · 12:59E. Mares4571311952J. Ruzicka511111711113
WSep 3 · 11:30E. Mares531191111113J. Ruzicka3961113092
LAug 1 · 16:30E. Mares5811111013132J. Ruzicka56591215153
WJun 22 · 13:00E. Mares331111113J. Ruzicka214980
WJun 22 · 10:30E. Mares49111116113J. Ruzicka41591891
E. Mares10
LOct 5 · 15:30V. Koubek1.731111123E. Mares2.0075100WOct 5 · 13:06E. Mares1.571112113J. Ruzicka2.2571090LOct 5 · 12:00L. Zeman1.7351111113E. Mares2.00116971LOct 5 · 11:00M. Huk2.501081311113E. Mares1.50121111992WOct 5 · 10:30E. Mares1.671111113J. Ruzicka2.109890LOct 4 · 20:59T. Postelt1.83118116113E. Mares1.8761161142WOct 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8311811143J. Vales1.839119121LOct 4 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.2071211113E. Mares1.611110561LOct 4 · 18:00E. Mares2.001147101T. Postelt1.7341111123WOct 2 · 13:30J. Ruzicka2.101411951E. Mares1.6716811113
J. Ruzicka10
WOct 5 · 15:00J. Ruzicka1.831171310123M. Huk1.839111112102LOct 5 · 13:06E. Mares1.571112113J. Ruzicka2.2571090LOct 5 · 12:30M. Huk1.838111114113J. Ruzicka1.83118131252WOct 5 · 11:30J. Ruzicka2.631111113L. Zeman1.447990LOct 5 · 10:30E. Mares1.671111113J. Ruzicka2.109890LOct 2 · 13:30J. Ruzicka2.101411951E. Mares1.6716811113WOct 2 · 12:00J. Ruzicka2.3811811113E. Mares1.53411891WOct 2 · 11:30J. Simecek2.5079100J. Ruzicka1.501111123LOct 2 · 10:00J. Ruzicka2.2541212592A. Barton1.5711101011113WOct 2 · 09:30J. Ruzicka1.5591111113J. Simecek2.30116171
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