TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Ruzicka vs Ales Barton 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
41112101210511911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:53 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeAles Barton to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Ruzicka above · Ales Barton below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Ales Barton at 56.5%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Ruzicka 23–41 Ales Barton Jiri Ruzicka has won 23 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5356.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Barton
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-41 in 64
Barton
Correct
gap of 18 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1871 vs Barton 1765
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 100% vs Barton 40%
Ruzicka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 90% vs Barton 50%
Ruzicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +5 · Barton -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Barton) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barton form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 2.25 / Barton 1.571
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Barton)-7.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228017
Ruzicka2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 130 of 333
Down 0–1, comes back20% 41 of 210
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 112
Barton1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 27)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 81 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it88% 36 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it72% 57 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka4wins
AwayBarton6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBarton leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka75%3 of 4
AwayBarton83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka4Barton6n = 10Barton took 6 of 10
S2Ruzicka2Barton8n = 10Barton took 8 of 10
S3Ruzicka4Barton6n = 10Barton took 6 of 10
S4Ruzicka5Barton2n = 7Ruzicka took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaBartonR − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.739.5−4.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime699 / 1416 vs 227 / 43449.4%52.3%699 / 1416 vs 227 / 434Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BartonRuzicka 2.25/Barton 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Barton won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 01:30J. Ruzicka4381311113A. Barton371111871
LSep 18 · 03:00J. Ruzicka2064100A. Barton341111123
WSep 18 · 01:30J. Ruzicka53118815113A. Barton49911111352
LSep 11 · 08:00J. Ruzicka291071111A. Barton4212118113
LAug 29 · 13:30J. Ruzicka31118571A. Barton3961111113
LAug 29 · 10:00J. Ruzicka4681571152A. Barton511113115113
LAug 5 · 23:30J. Ruzicka179350A. Barton331111113
LJul 31 · 13:00J. Ruzicka2612860A. Barton361411113
WJul 31 · 11:00J. Ruzicka43111011113A. Barton35812691
WJul 25 · 17:30J. Ruzicka3911512113A. Barton399111091
J. Ruzicka10
WOct 2 · 09:30J. Ruzicka1.5591111113J. Simecek2.30116171WOct 2 · 08:00E. Mares1.5312111081J. Ruzicka2.38101312113WOct 2 · 07:00L. Jindrak1.336118121J. Ruzicka3.2511411143WOct 2 · 06:30J. Ruzicka1.5711911113J. Simecek2.25311761WSep 29 · 17:30J. Ruzicka2.0016911113O. Svacha1.731411731LSep 29 · 16:30J. Ruzicka1.91109111292F. Pusch1.801211410113WSep 29 · 15:00J. Ruzicka1.53911157113R. Urbaniec2.38117131192WSep 29 · 14:00O. Svacha1.837113111J. Ruzicka1.8311711133WSep 29 · 13:30J. Ruzicka1.911120113F. Pusch1.8071840WSep 29 · 12:30F. Pusch1.73116931J. Ruzicka2.0091111113
A. Barton10
LOct 2 · 11:00A. Barton3.503511111E. Mares1.2811119133LSep 27 · 17:00A. Barton1.851191216112J. Mecl Jr1.854111414133LSep 27 · 16:00A. Barton1.5741111842F. Pusch2.2511851193LSep 27 · 15:30R. Urbaniec2.75111111123A. Barton1.401368101WSep 27 · 14:00A. Barton1.91111177113J. Mecl Jr1.8098111172WSep 25 · 02:58A. Barton1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.637860WSep 25 · 02:30A. Barton1.44613115153R. Urbaniec2.631111411132LSep 25 · 01:30J. Ruzicka2.3881311113A. Barton1.531111871WSep 25 · 00:00A. Barton1.731211113O. Svacha2.0010870LSep 24 · 23:00M. Wagner3.40411411113A. Barton1.3011611862
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