TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ales Barton vs Erik Mares 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3115111191113––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:50 and never touched: 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Barton above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 74 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Erik Mares at 72.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ales Barton 0–6 Erik Mares Ales Barton has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5072.5%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 5.3pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-6 in 6
Mares
Correct
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barton 1778 vs Mares 1791
Mares
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barton 40% vs Mares 20%
Barton
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barton 50% vs Mares 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Barton +1 · Mares +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Mares) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarton 3.50 / Mares 1.285
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Mares)-5.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13230676
Barton3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 21 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Mares1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 150 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it87% 96 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it72% 128 of 179
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBarton0wins
AwayMares6wins
1 of 6 to a deciderMares leads 6–0, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartonn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMares100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barton1Mares5n = 6Mares took 5 of 6
S2Barton1Mares5n = 6Mares took 5 of 6
S3Barton0Mares6n = 6Mares took 6 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away467%
These 6 meetings
MetricBartonMaresB − MBasisWins06−6in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match28.038.8−10.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartonMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 435 vs 602 / 120752.4%49.9%228 / 435 vs 602 / 1207Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaresBarton 3.50/Mares 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 13 · 07:00A. Barton157620E. Mares331111113
LDec 12 · 11:00A. Barton4111791132E. Mares48711118113
LDec 1 · 14:30A. Barton2578100E. Mares341111123
LDec 1 · 12:30A. Barton373167111E. Mares49111411133
LNov 28 · 10:01A. Barton2981290E. Mares361114113
LNov 28 · 08:30A. Barton217680E. Mares331111113
A. Barton10
WOct 2 · 10:00J. Ruzicka2.2541212592A. Barton1.5711101011113LSep 27 · 17:00A. Barton1.851191216112J. Mecl Jr1.854111414133LSep 27 · 16:00A. Barton1.5741111842F. Pusch2.2511851193LSep 27 · 15:30R. Urbaniec2.75111111123A. Barton1.401368101WSep 27 · 14:00A. Barton1.91111177113J. Mecl Jr1.8098111172WSep 25 · 02:58A. Barton1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.637860WSep 25 · 02:30A. Barton1.44613115153R. Urbaniec2.631111411132LSep 25 · 01:30J. Ruzicka2.3881311113A. Barton1.531111871WSep 25 · 00:00A. Barton1.731211113O. Svacha2.0010870LSep 24 · 23:00M. Wagner3.40411411113A. Barton1.3011611862
E. Mares10
WOct 2 · 10:30E. Mares1.251311133J. Simecek3.75112110LOct 2 · 09:00L. Jindrak1.501111113E. Mares2.504770LOct 2 · 08:00E. Mares1.5312111081J. Ruzicka2.38101312113LOct 2 · 07:30J. Simecek5.00812722113E. Mares1.141110112062LOct 2 · 06:00E. Mares2.20115591L. Jindrak1.6191111113LSep 30 · 13:30J. Vales1.831114113E. Mares1.8381290WSep 30 · 12:30M. Zahradka3.503880E. Mares1.281111113WSep 30 · 11:30E. Mares1.9171611113T. Postelt1.801114891LSep 30 · 10:30J. Vales1.801111113E. Mares1.919870WSep 30 · 09:04E. Mares1.631113113J. Vales2.1351190
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.