TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Vales vs Erik Mares 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181412119––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Vales above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 65 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Erik Mares at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Vales 41–44 Erik Mares Jakub Vales has won 41 of their 85 meetings.
They have already met 3 times today · last one 3h before this match
Vales beat Mares 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
41-44 in 85
Mares
Wrong
gap of 3 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vales 1852 vs Mares 1833
Vales
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vales 40% vs Mares 60%
Mares
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vales 40% vs Mares 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vales -1 · Mares +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mares) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVales 1.833 / Mares 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mares)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13222391
Vales1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Mares1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVales4wins
AwayMares6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVales100%3 of 3
AwayMares85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vales3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Vales5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S3Vales6Mares4n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S4Vales3Mares4n = 7Mares took 4 of 7
S5Vales1Mares2n = 3Mares took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricValesMaresV − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.538.8−4.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricValesMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 541 vs 606 / 121354.5%50%295 / 541 vs 606 / 1213Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaresVales 1.83/Mares 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vales won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 10:30J. Vales331111113E. Mares249870
LSep 30 · 09:04J. Vales2551190E. Mares351113113
LSep 30 · 07:30J. Vales228590E. Mares331111113
LSep 29 · 10:30J. Vales28511661E. Mares3811511113
WSep 29 · 06:00J. Vales561161711113E. Mares55911151372
WSep 24 · 20:30J. Vales4112612113E. Mares3910111081
LSep 22 · 13:00J. Vales3731111572E. Mares48119611113
WSep 22 · 11:00J. Vales4061112113E. Mares371171091
LSep 22 · 07:00J. Vales26551151E. Mares3611113113
LSep 6 · 08:00J. Vales3751151152E. Mares43114116113
J. Vales10
LSep 30 · 12:00T. Postelt2.6314131111113J. Vales1.441211131362WSep 30 · 11:00M. Zahradka2.7511711131J. Vales1.4013114153WSep 30 · 10:30J. Vales1.801111113E. Mares1.919870LSep 30 · 09:04E. Mares1.631113113J. Vales2.1351190LSep 30 · 08:30R. Urbaniec2.38911512113J. Vales1.53118111082LSep 30 · 07:30J. Vales1.838590E. Mares1.831111113WSep 30 · 06:30J. Kycelt2.639101121J. Vales1.4411124113LSep 29 · 13:30L. Jindrak1.801181211113J. Vales1.9031114572WSep 29 · 12:00T. Postelt2.38116381J. Vales1.5381111113LSep 29 · 11:00L. Jindrak1.8011911113J. Vales1.91811891
E. Mares10
WSep 30 · 12:30M. Zahradka3.503880E. Mares1.281111113WSep 30 · 11:30E. Mares1.9171611113T. Postelt1.801114891LSep 30 · 10:30J. Vales1.801111113E. Mares1.919870WSep 30 · 09:04E. Mares1.631113113J. Vales2.1351190LSep 30 · 08:00E. Mares1.571181111262J. Kycelt2.25911139283WSep 30 · 07:30J. Vales1.838590E. Mares1.831111113LSep 30 · 06:00E. Mares1.61139711132R. Urbaniec2.201111118153WSep 29 · 13:00E. Mares1.7312911123T. Postelt2.0010116101LSep 29 · 12:30L. Jindrak1.671111113E. Mares2.106860LSep 29 · 11:30E. Mares1.7371112882T. Postelt2.001171011113
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