TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Postelt vs Jakub Vales 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611311811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:50 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Vales to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Postelt above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Jakub Vales at 61.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Postelt 14–22 Jakub Vales Tomas Postelt has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:50What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vales
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-22 in 36
Vales
Correct
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1885 vs Vales 1873
Postelt
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 60% vs Vales 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 70% vs Vales 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt +1 · Vales -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Vales) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Postelt form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 2.38 / Vales 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Vales)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13210944
Postelt2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 61 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back33% 26 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 40
Vales1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 108 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it87% 46 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it70% 67 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePostelt4wins
AwayVales6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVales leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePostelt66.7%2 of 3
AwayVales71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt3Vales7n = 10Vales took 7 of 10
S2Postelt6Vales4n = 10Postelt took 6 of 10
S3Postelt3Vales7n = 10Vales took 7 of 10
S4Postelt2Vales5n = 7Vales took 5 of 7
S5Postelt3Vales1n = 4Postelt took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPosteltValesP − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.541.4−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltValesBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 710 vs 291 / 53247%54.7%334 / 710 vs 291 / 532Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ValesPostelt 2.38/Vales 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vales won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 15:30T. Postelt168530J. Vales331111113
LSep 6 · 09:30T. Postelt408131271J. Vales47111114113
LSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt4411117872J. Vales50981111113
WJun 27 · 00:30T. Postelt51912613113J. Vales511110111182
LJun 24 · 23:00T. Postelt32811851J. Vales3811511113
LJun 24 · 09:00T. Postelt4210101571J. Vales48121213113
WJun 24 · 06:30T. Postelt48116119113J. Vales4591191152
WJun 23 · 07:00T. Postelt351113113J. Vales2691160
LJun 17 · 17:00T. Postelt183780J. Vales331111113
WJun 17 · 14:30T. Postelt49711911113J. Vales4311711862
T. Postelt10
WSep 29 · 11:30E. Mares1.7371112882T. Postelt2.001171011113LSep 29 · 10:00T. Postelt2.385115121L. Jindrak1.5311811143WSep 24 · 17:00T. Postelt2.206121111113V. Koubek1.6111147452WSep 24 · 16:00T. Postelt2.251411113V. Koubek1.5712650LSep 24 · 15:30J. Vales1.501111113T. Postelt2.508530LSep 24 · 14:00T. Postelt1.7341151452J. Kycelt2.001131112113WSep 21 · 17:30T. Postelt2.381111113V. Koubek1.536570WSep 21 · 16:30T. Postelt2.201111113V. Koubek1.618770WSep 21 · 15:00T. Postelt1.83116115123E. Mares1.83811511102WSep 21 · 14:00J. Zajicek1.4079111192T. Postelt2.75111166113
J. Vales10
LSep 29 · 11:00L. Jindrak1.8011911113J. Vales1.91811891LSep 29 · 10:30J. Vales1.91511661E. Mares1.8011511113WSep 29 · 09:28J. Vales1.911111113L. Jindrak1.803350WSep 29 · 08:00J. Vales1.9111118113L. Jindrak1.80961181WSep 29 · 07:30J. Kycelt2.251311751J. Vales1.5715411113WSep 29 · 06:00J. Vales1.831161711113E. Mares1.83911151372LSep 24 · 21:28J. Zajicek1.361111113J. Vales3.003530WSep 24 · 20:30E. Mares1.8310111081J. Vales1.8312612113LSep 24 · 19:30J. Vales2.63118891J. Medek1.4481111113WSep 24 · 15:30J. Vales1.501111113T. Postelt2.508530
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