TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Postelt vs Jakub Vales 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1412131111131113116
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Vales to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Postelt above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 115 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Jakub Vales at 64.9%
115 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Postelt 14–23 Jakub Vales Tomas Postelt has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5864.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vales
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-23 in 37
Vales
Wrong
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1830 vs Vales 1863
Vales
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 20% vs Vales 40%
Vales
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 30% vs Vales 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt -4 · Vales +2
Postelt
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Vales) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 2.625 / Vales 1.444
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Vales)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13215927
Postelt2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 62 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back32% 26 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 40
Vales1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 106 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it71% 65 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePostelt3wins
AwayVales7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVales leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePostelt50%2 of 4
AwayVales83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt4Vales6n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S2Postelt5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S3Postelt3Vales7n = 10Vales took 7 of 10
S4Postelt1Vales6n = 7Vales took 6 of 7
S5Postelt2Vales1n = 3Postelt took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPosteltValesP − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.441.2−5.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltValesBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 714 vs 295 / 54046.8%54.6%334 / 714 vs 295 / 540Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ValesPostelt 2.63/Vales 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 12:00T. Postelt28116381J. Vales4181111113
LSep 24 · 15:30T. Postelt168530J. Vales331111113
LSep 6 · 09:30T. Postelt408131271J. Vales47111114113
LSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt4411117872J. Vales50981111113
WJun 27 · 00:30T. Postelt51912613113J. Vales511110111182
LJun 24 · 23:00T. Postelt32811851J. Vales3811511113
LJun 24 · 09:00T. Postelt4210101571J. Vales48121213113
WJun 24 · 06:30T. Postelt48116119113J. Vales4591191152
WJun 23 · 07:00T. Postelt351113113J. Vales2691160
LJun 17 · 17:00T. Postelt183780J. Vales331111113
T. Postelt10
LSep 30 · 13:00M. Zahradka1.8311101111113T. Postelt1.8361251392LSep 30 · 11:30E. Mares1.9171611113T. Postelt1.801114891LSep 30 · 10:00T. Postelt2.005560M. Zahradka1.731111113LSep 29 · 13:00E. Mares1.7312911123T. Postelt2.0010116101LSep 29 · 12:00T. Postelt2.38116381J. Vales1.5381111113WSep 29 · 11:30E. Mares1.7371112882T. Postelt2.001171011113LSep 29 · 10:00T. Postelt2.385115121L. Jindrak1.5311811143WSep 24 · 17:00T. Postelt2.206121111113V. Koubek1.6111147452WSep 24 · 16:00T. Postelt2.251411113V. Koubek1.5712650LSep 24 · 15:30J. Vales1.501111113T. Postelt2.508530
J. Vales10
WSep 30 · 11:00M. Zahradka2.7511711131J. Vales1.4013114153WSep 30 · 10:30J. Vales1.801111113E. Mares1.919870LSep 30 · 09:04E. Mares1.631113113J. Vales2.1351190LSep 30 · 08:30R. Urbaniec2.38911512113J. Vales1.53118111082LSep 30 · 07:30J. Vales1.838590E. Mares1.831111113WSep 30 · 06:30J. Kycelt2.639101121J. Vales1.4411124113LSep 29 · 13:30L. Jindrak1.801181211113J. Vales1.9031114572WSep 29 · 12:00T. Postelt2.38116381J. Vales1.5381111113LSep 29 · 11:00L. Jindrak1.8011911113J. Vales1.91811891WSep 24 · 15:30J. Vales1.501111113T. Postelt2.508530
Upcoming Matches
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