TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Zahradka vs Erik Mares 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311811811––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:26 and never touched: 73.5% is still 73.5%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
73.5%
73.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Zahradka above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Erik Mares at 73.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Zahradka 17–31 Erik Mares Michal Zahradka has won 17 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2673.5%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 4.3pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-31 in 48
Mares
Correct
gap of 14 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zahradka 1802 vs Mares 1819
Mares
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zahradka 60% vs Mares 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zahradka 50% vs Mares 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zahradka -1 · Mares +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Mares) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZahradka 3.50 / Mares 1.285
Signal prob.27% / 74%
Edge (Mares)-4.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216732
Zahradka3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 72 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 52
Mares1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 148 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it87% 94 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it72% 126 of 175
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZahradka2wins
AwayMares8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZahradkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMares100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zahradka2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S2Zahradka3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S3Zahradka5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S4Zahradka2Mares5n = 7Mares took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZahradkaMaresZ − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.341.5−8.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZahradkaMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 887 vs 605 / 121248.1%49.9%427 / 887 vs 605 / 1212Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaresZahradka 3.50/Mares 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.5%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 23:00M. Zahradka62251016113E. Mares5523121461
LSep 15 · 21:30M. Zahradka48811121162E. Mares471121013113
LSep 15 · 18:00M. Zahradka325116101E. Mares4311911123
LSep 13 · 19:30M. Zahradka4212611131E. Mares4914119153
LSep 7 · 18:30M. Zahradka28841151E. Mares4211119113
LSep 7 · 16:00M. Zahradka183870E. Mares331111113
WSep 3 · 12:00M. Zahradka47111411113E. Mares42916891
LAug 20 · 11:30M. Zahradka111460E. Mares331111113
LAug 12 · 13:00M. Zahradka25011771E. Mares3811511113
LAug 12 · 10:30M. Zahradka209830E. Mares331111113
M. Zahradka10
WSep 30 · 13:00M. Zahradka1.8311101111113T. Postelt1.8361251392LSep 30 · 11:00M. Zahradka2.7511711131J. Vales1.4013114153WSep 30 · 10:00T. Postelt2.005560M. Zahradka1.731111113LSep 20 · 17:29L. Prikasky1.401111123M. Zahradka2.7548100WSep 20 · 16:00J. Mecl Jr1.678680M. Zahradka2.101111113WSep 20 · 15:00R. Rose2.209411101M. Zahradka1.6111115123LSep 20 · 14:30M. Zahradka2.63112111462L. Prikasky1.44811516113LSep 20 · 13:30M. Zahradka3.008760L. Prikasky1.361111113LSep 20 · 12:00M. Zahradka2.63117431L. Prikasky1.4471111113WSep 20 · 11:30F. Pusch2.009111561M. Zahradka1.7311717113
E. Mares10
WSep 30 · 11:30E. Mares1.9171611113T. Postelt1.801114891LSep 30 · 10:30J. Vales1.801111113E. Mares1.919870WSep 30 · 09:04E. Mares1.631113113J. Vales2.1351190LSep 30 · 08:00E. Mares1.571181111262J. Kycelt2.25911139283WSep 30 · 07:30J. Vales1.838590E. Mares1.831111113LSep 30 · 06:00E. Mares1.61139711132R. Urbaniec2.201111118153WSep 29 · 13:00E. Mares1.7312911123T. Postelt2.0010116101LSep 29 · 12:30L. Jindrak1.671111113E. Mares2.106860LSep 29 · 11:30E. Mares1.7371112882T. Postelt2.001171011113WSep 29 · 10:30J. Vales1.91511661E. Mares1.8011511113
Upcoming Matches
M. Zahradka
Nothing scheduled
E. Mares
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.