TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Erik Mares vs Jakub Kycelt 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11981111131192628
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:57 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingErik Mares above · Jakub Kycelt below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 26-28
Point 137 set 5, 26-28 · our read held Erik Mares at 59.7%
137 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 14–11 Jakub Kycelt Jakub Kycelt has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5759.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-11 in 25
Mares
Wrong
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1814 vs Kycelt 1831
Kycelt
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Kycelt 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 40% vs Kycelt 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Kycelt +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Mares) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.571 / Kycelt 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Mares)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216753
Mares1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 148 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it87% 94 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it72% 126 of 175
Kycelt2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 52 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back26% 14 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares6wins
AwayKycelt4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares62.5%5 of 8
AwayKyceltn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares8Kycelt2n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S2Mares5Kycelt5n = 10split evenly
S3Mares6Kycelt4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S4Mares4Kycelt3n = 7Mares took 4 of 7
S5Mares1Kycelt2n = 3Kycelt took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresKyceltM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.936.0+5.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresKyceltBasisWin rate · lifetime603 / 1208 vs 172 / 34149.9%50.4%603 / 1208 vs 172 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.57/Kycelt 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kycelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 08:58E. Mares4291111113J. Kycelt28113951
LSep 29 · 08:30E. Mares30127651J. Kycelt43101111113
LSep 7 · 19:00E. Mares571010161292J. Kycelt5912121410113
WSep 7 · 17:29E. Mares331111113J. Kycelt164750
LSep 7 · 15:30E. Mares581111109172J. Kycelt56591211193
WSep 2 · 01:30E. Mares44111111113J. Kycelt37913691
LAug 31 · 15:00E. Mares43111111101J. Kycelt4461313123
WAug 1 · 20:58E. Mares46116711113J. Kycelt4691111782
WAug 1 · 20:30E. Mares331111113J. Kycelt143650
WAug 1 · 17:29E. Mares331111113J. Kycelt175570
E. Mares10
WSep 30 · 09:04E. Mares1.631113113J. Vales2.1351190WSep 30 · 07:30J. Vales1.838590E. Mares1.831111113LSep 30 · 06:00E. Mares1.61139711132R. Urbaniec2.201111118153WSep 29 · 13:00E. Mares1.7312911123T. Postelt2.0010116101LSep 29 · 12:30L. Jindrak1.671111113E. Mares2.106860LSep 29 · 11:30E. Mares1.7371112882T. Postelt2.001171011113WSep 29 · 10:30J. Vales1.91511661E. Mares1.8011511113WSep 29 · 08:58J. Kycelt2.25113951E. Mares1.5791111113LSep 29 · 08:30E. Mares1.57127651J. Kycelt2.25101111113LSep 29 · 07:00E. Mares2.10981181L. Jindrak1.6711119113
J. Kycelt10
WSep 30 · 07:00R. Urbaniec3.00911591J. Kycelt1.3611811113LSep 30 · 06:30J. Kycelt2.639101121J. Vales1.4411124113LSep 29 · 08:58J. Kycelt2.25113951E. Mares1.5791111113WSep 29 · 08:30E. Mares1.57127651J. Kycelt2.25101111113LSep 29 · 07:30J. Kycelt2.251311751J. Vales1.5715411113LSep 29 · 06:30L. Jindrak1.571411123J. Kycelt2.25126100LSep 24 · 17:30J. Kycelt2.106740J. Vales1.671111113WSep 24 · 16:30J. Kycelt2.25111110113J. Vales1.57951251WSep 24 · 15:00J. Kycelt3.25111110113V. Koubek1.33771291WSep 24 · 14:00T. Postelt1.7341151452J. Kycelt2.001131112113
Upcoming Matches
E. Mares
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