TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ales Barton vs Jan Mecl Jr 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119118711711117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Barton to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Barton above · Jan Mecl Jr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 10-7
Point 92 set 5, 10-7 — our read held Ales Barton at 54.0%
92 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Ales Barton 13–14 Jan Mecl Jr Ales Barton has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:06What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-14 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barton 1790 vs Jr 1786
Barton
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barton 60% vs Jr 80%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barton 60% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Barton +2 · Jr +4
Jr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Barton)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarton 1.91 / Jr 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Barton)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13199019
Barton1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 25)
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 21 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Jr1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 124 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it93% 63 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it80% 91 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBarton6wins
AwayJr4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBarton leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarton80%4 of 5
AwayJr60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barton5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S2Barton7Jr3n = 10Barton took 7 of 10
S3Barton6Jr4n = 10Barton took 6 of 10
S4Barton3Jr4n = 7Jr took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartonJrB − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.634.3+1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartonJrBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 438 vs 375 / 72152.5%52%230 / 438 vs 375 / 721Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartonBarton 1.91/Jr 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Barton won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 8 · 13:30A. Barton4911912892J. Jr507111011113
LAug 8 · 11:30A. Barton144640J. Jr331111113
WJul 30 · 15:30A. Barton331111113J. Jr217950
LJul 12 · 09:00A. Barton355111091J. Jr4211812113
WJul 12 · 06:00A. Barton46411119113J. Jr4711791192
WJul 6 · 17:30A. Barton351311113J. Jr2111550
WJul 6 · 14:00A. Barton3711114113J. Jr30661171
LJun 30 · 15:00A. Barton31691151J. Jr4111118113
WJun 25 · 14:00A. Barton3811115113J. Jr27841141
WJun 21 · 06:30A. Barton3851111113J. Jr31119741
A. Barton10
LSep 27 · 15:30R. Urbaniec2.75111111123A. Barton1.401368101WSep 25 · 02:58A. Barton1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.637860WSep 25 · 02:30A. Barton1.44613115153R. Urbaniec2.631111411132LSep 25 · 01:30J. Ruzicka2.3881311113A. Barton1.531111871WSep 25 · 00:00A. Barton1.731211113O. Svacha2.0010870LSep 24 · 23:00M. Wagner3.40411411113A. Barton1.3011611862WSep 23 · 08:58A. Barton1.3351111113M. Wagner3.25118721LSep 23 · 08:30A. Barton1.73511481J. Simecek2.0011711113WSep 23 · 07:00A. Barton1.401111123M. Wagner2.7575100LSep 23 · 06:00R. Urbaniec2.751291114113A. Barton1.40141191282
J. Jr10
LSep 27 · 15:00J. Jr1.5791115962F. Pusch2.251161311113WSep 26 · 21:30J. Jr1.5212511113R. Urbaniec2.351011891WSep 26 · 20:00J. Jr1.501211123O. Svacha2.50108100WSep 26 · 19:30T. Franek2.6381280J. Jr1.441114113WSep 26 · 18:00J. Jr1.531114710113R. Urbaniec2.38712111212LSep 25 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.3511117113J. Jr1.52781181WSep 25 · 20:00J. Jr1.50811119123R. Urbaniec2.50118811102WSep 25 · 19:30R. Rose1.911110981J. Jr1.8091211113LSep 25 · 18:00J. Jr2.10118891M. Klimenta1.6781111113LSep 20 · 17:00R. Rose2.001111113J. Jr1.736970
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