TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Urbaniec vs Jan Mecl Jr 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117118711118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJan Mecl Jr to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Jan Mecl Jr below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Mecl Jr at 59.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 6–13 Jan Mecl Jr Radim Urbaniec has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jr beat Urbaniec 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-13 in 19
Jr
Wrong
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1712 vs Jr 1764
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec -1 · Jr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 2.35 / Jr 1.52
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Jr)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13197017
Urbaniec2.35
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 180 of 457
Down 0–1, comes back22% 56 of 258
Down 0–2, comes back6% 9 of 143
Jr1.52
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 118 of 200
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it79% 87 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrbaniec3wins
AwayJr7wins
8 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 7–3, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec25%1 of 4
AwayJr66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Urbaniec2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S3Urbaniec5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Urbaniec8Jr1n = 9Urbaniec took 8 of 9
S5Urbaniec2Jr6n = 8Jr took 6 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbaniecJrU − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.745.3−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecJrBasisWin rate · lifetime661 / 1299 vs 375 / 72450.9%51.8%661 / 1299 vs 375 / 724Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrUrbaniec 2.35/Jr 1.52
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 20:00R. Urbaniec48118811102J. Jr51811119123
LAug 8 · 10:00R. Urbaniec3836111172J. Jr42111154113
LAug 6 · 11:30R. Urbaniec4068111142J. Jr46111167113
LJul 17 · 13:00R. Urbaniec30311160J. Jr421113183
LJul 17 · 11:30R. Urbaniec4186111152J. Jr48111187113
LJul 12 · 17:30R. Urbaniec4211119292J. Jr51991111113
WJul 12 · 15:30R. Urbaniec474101111113J. Jr4511129492
WJul 10 · 12:30R. Urbaniec551212911113J. Jr50101411782
WJul 7 · 10:00R. Urbaniec4391111123J. Jr321192101
LJun 19 · 12:59R. Urbaniec4311571192J. Jr46711116113
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 25 · 20:00J. Jr1.50811119123R. Urbaniec2.50118811102WSep 25 · 19:00M. Klimenta1.531541161R. Urbaniec2.3817117113WSep 25 · 18:30R. Urbaniec2.25791111113R. Rose1.5711117992LSep 25 · 02:58A. Barton1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.637860LSep 25 · 02:30A. Barton1.44613115153R. Urbaniec2.631111411132LSep 25 · 01:00O. Svacha2.001211113R. Urbaniec1.7310980LSep 24 · 23:30R. Urbaniec2.63581181J. Ruzicka1.4411117113WSep 24 · 22:00R. Urbaniec1.6111119113M. Wagner2.20991131LSep 23 · 13:30R. Urbaniec2.379780J. Simecek1.461111113WSep 23 · 12:30O. Svacha2.1081120R. Urbaniec1.671113113
J. Jr10
WSep 25 · 20:00J. Jr1.50811119123R. Urbaniec2.50118811102WSep 25 · 19:30R. Rose1.911110981J. Jr1.8091211113LSep 25 · 18:00J. Jr2.10118891M. Klimenta1.6781111113LSep 20 · 17:00R. Rose2.001111113J. Jr1.736970LSep 20 · 16:00J. Jr1.678680M. Zahradka2.101111113LSep 20 · 15:30L. Prikasky1.67112119113J. Jr2.1071181152LSep 20 · 14:00J. Jr1.57571271R. Rose2.25111110103WSep 19 · 13:00O. Kolisnyk2.207101111102J. Jr1.61111299123LSep 19 · 12:30J. Jr1.8377100L. Zeman1.831111123WSep 19 · 11:00J. Jr2.3851111113L. Prikasky1.53114271
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