TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13159501
Played Sep 19Finished
Oleksandr Kolisnyk
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71110121191191012
Jan Mecl Jr
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Mecl Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Kolisnyk above · Jan Mecl Jr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 102 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Jan Mecl Jr at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolisnyk 19–26 Jan Mecl Jr Oleksandr Kolisnyk has won 19 of their 45 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kolisnyk beat Jr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:55What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-26 in 45
Jr
Correct
gap of 7 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolisnyk 1799 vs Jr 1777
Kolisnyk
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolisnyk 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolisnyk 70% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolisnyk -2 · Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolisnyk 2.20 / Jr 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Jr)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13159501
Kolisnyk2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 76 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 52
Jr1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 119 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it78% 87 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolisnyk4wins
AwayJr6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolisnyk75%3 of 4
AwayJr83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolisnyk4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Kolisnyk2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S3Kolisnyk5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolisnyk3Jr5n = 8Jr took 5 of 8
S5Kolisnyk3Jr1n = 4Kolisnyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolisnykJrK − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.843.0−3.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolisnykJrBasisWin rate · lifetime553 / 1089 vs 385 / 73750.8%52.2%553 / 1089 vs 385 / 737Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrKolisnyk 2.20/Jr 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 10:00O. Kolisnyk4415117113J. Jr411391181
WSep 13 · 17:30O. Kolisnyk49881111113J. Jr3811112682
WSep 13 · 14:00O. Kolisnyk51129118113J. Jr45101171162
LSep 5 · 20:58O. Kolisnyk34691181J. Jr4211119113
LSep 5 · 19:30O. Kolisnyk196490J. Jr331111113
WAug 27 · 10:00O. Kolisnyk6211111010203J. Jr58881212182
LAug 26 · 13:00O. Kolisnyk361071181J. Jr4312119113
LAug 26 · 10:00O. Kolisnyk4495111182J. Jr49111197113
LAug 24 · 10:00O. Kolisnyk361185121J. Jr4591111143
LAug 10 · 13:00O. Kolisnyk2341270J. Jr361114113
O. Kolisnyk10
LSep 19 · 12:00O. Kolisnyk3.008960L. Prikasky1.361111113LSep 19 · 11:30L. Zeman1.66138713113O. Kolisnyk2.051111111162WSep 19 · 10:00O. Kolisnyk2.3815117113J. Jr1.531391181WSep 18 · 03:30O. Kolisnyk1.57111111113M. Wagner2.25136581LSep 18 · 02:30A. Barton2.2511118153O. Kolisnyk1.578911131WSep 18 · 01:00J. Simecek2.637119101O. Kolisnyk1.4411911123WSep 17 · 23:30O. Kolisnyk2.001111113J. Ruzicka1.735620WSep 17 · 22:00O. Kolisnyk1.6161111123M. Wagner2.201199101WSep 17 · 17:30M. Huk1.57411581O. Kolisnyk2.2511711113WSep 17 · 16:30O. Kolisnyk1.50121011113J. Simecek2.501012481
J. Jr10
LSep 19 · 12:30J. Jr1.8377100L. Zeman1.831111123WSep 19 · 11:00J. Jr2.3851111113L. Prikasky1.53114271LSep 19 · 10:00O. Kolisnyk2.3815117113J. Jr1.531391181LSep 13 · 17:30O. Kolisnyk2.45881111113J. Jr1.4911112682WSep 13 · 16:00J. Jr1.44811711113V. Nohejl2.6311911542WSep 13 · 15:30J. Ruzicka2.5061190J. Jr1.501113113LSep 13 · 14:00J. Jr1.50101171162O. Kolisnyk2.50129118113WSep 5 · 20:58J. Jr1.5711119113O. Kolisnyk2.25691181WSep 5 · 20:00J. Jr1.611112157133M. Zahradka2.209141311112WSep 5 · 19:30O. Kolisnyk2.256490J. Jr1.571111113
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