TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Mecl Jr
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5117111210710––
Radek Rose
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Mecl Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Mecl Jr above · Radek Rose below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-10
Point 73 set 4, 7-10 — our read held Jan Mecl Jr at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jan Mecl Jr 5–5 Radek Rose Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:57What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1804 vs Rose 1677
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Rose 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Rose 40%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Rose +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.57 / Rose 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Jr)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13158550
Jr1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 120 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it78% 88 of 113
Rose2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 12 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr5wins
AwayRose5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr100%4 of 4
AwayRose83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Rose6n = 10Rose took 6 of 10
S2Jr7Rose3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Jr5Rose5n = 10split evenly
S4Jr4Rose2n = 6Jr took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrRoseJ − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.434.7+0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrRoseBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 738 vs 153 / 33752.3%45.4%386 / 738 vs 153 / 337Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.57/Rose 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rose won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 15:30J. Jr341111123R. Rose2578100
WJul 9 · 18:00J. Jr3814112113R. Rose361271161
LJun 29 · 21:30J. Jr29441471R. Rose45111112113
LJun 29 · 18:00J. Jr46811115112R. Rose49118611133
LJun 18 · 21:00J. Jr268990R. Rose331111113
WJun 18 · 18:30J. Jr351111133R. Rose2687110
LJul 30 · 14:00J. Jr4791171192R. Rose42115114113
WFeb 9 · 16:30J. Jr4291111113R. Rose31118661
LJan 3 · 22:01J. Jr165650R. Rose331111113
WJan 3 · 20:30J. Jr4111118113R. Rose27621181
J. Jr10
WSep 19 · 13:00O. Kolisnyk2.207101111102J. Jr1.61111299123LSep 19 · 12:30J. Jr1.8377100L. Zeman1.831111123WSep 19 · 11:00J. Jr2.3851111113L. Prikasky1.53114271LSep 19 · 10:00O. Kolisnyk2.3815117113J. Jr1.531391181LSep 13 · 17:30O. Kolisnyk2.45881111113J. Jr1.4911112682WSep 13 · 16:00J. Jr1.44811711113V. Nohejl2.6311911542WSep 13 · 15:30J. Ruzicka2.5061190J. Jr1.501113113LSep 13 · 14:00J. Jr1.50101171162O. Kolisnyk2.50129118113WSep 5 · 20:58J. Jr1.5711119113O. Kolisnyk2.25691181WSep 5 · 20:00J. Jr1.611112157133M. Zahradka2.209141311112
R. Rose10
WSep 19 · 02:59R. Urbaniec2.3811812792R. Rose1.538111011113LSep 19 · 02:00R. Urbaniec2.50141173113R. Rose1.50126111182WSep 19 · 24:30R. Rose1.611111113M. Hampl2.207970LSep 18 · 23:00R. Rose2.63108100J. Ruzicka1.441211123LSep 18 · 22:00O. Svacha1.33101111113R. Rose3.25129391LSep 14 · 17:30O. Kolisnyk1.52125311113R. Rose2.35101111682WSep 14 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.25118361R. Rose1.5781111113LSep 14 · 15:30R. Rose2.3851190O. Kolisnyk1.531113113WSep 14 · 14:30A. Brazda2.75127551R. Rose1.40101111113LSep 13 · 03:29R. Rose1.8331171182R. Wagner1.83119114113
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