TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Urbaniec vs Radek Rose 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711911117119119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:02 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeRadek Rose to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Radek Rose below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-6
Point 89 set 5, 7-6 — our read held Radek Rose at 57.7%
89 points drawn · the score is 7 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 7–17 Radek Rose Radim Urbaniec has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:02What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rose
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Rose
Wrong
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1712 vs Rose 1692
Urbaniec
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 20% vs Rose 60%
Rose
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 30% vs Rose 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec -4 · Rose +1
Urbaniec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Rose) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 2.25 / Rose 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Rose)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13189425
Urbaniec2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 180 of 457
Down 0–1, comes back22% 56 of 258
Down 0–2, comes back6% 9 of 143
Rose1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 38 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it76% 25 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrbaniec3wins
AwayRose7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRose leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec40%2 of 5
AwayRose80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec5Rose5n = 10split evenly
S2Urbaniec5Rose5n = 10split evenly
S3Urbaniec4Rose6n = 10Rose took 6 of 10
S4Urbaniec1Rose8n = 9Rose took 8 of 9
S5Urbaniec2Rose2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbaniecRoseU − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.143.5−5.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecRoseBasisWin rate · lifetime659 / 1296 vs 155 / 34150.9%45.5%659 / 1296 vs 155 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RoseUrbaniec 2.25/Rose 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Rose · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 02:59R. Urbaniec4711812792R. Rose518111011113
WSep 19 · 02:00R. Urbaniec46141173113R. Rose48126111182
LSep 14 · 16:30R. Urbaniec28118361R. Rose4181111113
LAug 27 · 20:30R. Urbaniec27912331R. Rose43111011113
LAug 18 · 18:00R. Urbaniec351161171R. Rose4413119113
LAug 17 · 21:00R. Urbaniec4211113892R. Rose41441111113
WAug 17 · 19:30R. Urbaniec52911138113R. Rose50119111182
WAug 14 · 20:30R. Urbaniec3711114113R. Rose33581191
LAug 10 · 20:00R. Urbaniec27106110R. Rose361211133
LJun 16 · 21:00R. Urbaniec401091651R. Rose48121114113
R. Urbaniec10
WSep 25 · 19:00M. Klimenta1.531541161R. Urbaniec2.3817117113LSep 25 · 02:58A. Barton1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.637860LSep 25 · 02:30A. Barton1.44613115153R. Urbaniec2.631111411132LSep 25 · 01:00O. Svacha2.001211113R. Urbaniec1.7310980LSep 24 · 23:30R. Urbaniec2.63581181J. Ruzicka1.4411117113WSep 24 · 22:00R. Urbaniec1.6111119113M. Wagner2.20991131LSep 23 · 13:30R. Urbaniec2.379780J. Simecek1.461111113WSep 23 · 12:30O. Svacha2.1081120R. Urbaniec1.671113113WSep 23 · 11:30R. Urbaniec1.731111113M. Wagner2.004370LSep 23 · 10:30J. Simecek1.67911811113R. Urbaniec2.1011211742
R. Rose10
LSep 25 · 19:30R. Rose1.911110981J. Jr1.8091211113WSep 20 · 17:00R. Rose2.001111113J. Jr1.736970LSep 20 · 16:30R. Rose2.1089140L. Prikasky1.671111163LSep 20 · 15:00R. Rose2.209411101M. Zahradka1.6111115123WSep 20 · 14:00J. Jr1.57571271R. Rose2.25111110103WSep 19 · 02:59R. Urbaniec2.3811812792R. Rose1.538111011113LSep 19 · 02:00R. Urbaniec2.50141173113R. Rose1.50126111182WSep 19 · 00:30R. Rose1.611111113M. Hampl2.207970LSep 18 · 23:00R. Rose2.63108100J. Ruzicka1.441211123LSep 18 · 22:00O. Svacha1.33101111113R. Rose3.25129391
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