TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Simecek vs Radim Urbaniec 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Jan Simecek
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911112811117114
Radim Urbaniec
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Urbaniec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Simecek above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 85 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Radim Urbaniec at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek 9–1 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 1 of their 10 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 1h before this match
Simecek beat Urbaniec 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:25What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Simecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-1 in 10
Simecek
Correct
gap of 8 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simecek 1758 vs Urbaniec 1721
Simecek
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simecek 80% vs Urbaniec 60%
Simecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simecek 40% vs Urbaniec 60%
Urbaniec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simecek +4 · Urbaniec -1
Simecek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Simecek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimecek 1.67 / Urbaniec 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Simecek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13177492
Simecek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 26 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it64% 16 of 25
Urbaniec2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 180 of 456
Down 0–1, comes back21% 55 of 257
Down 0–2, comes back6% 8 of 140
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimecek9wins
AwayUrbaniec1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSimecek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimecek83.3%5 of 6
AwayUrbaniec0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simecek6Urbaniec4n = 10Simecek took 6 of 10
S2Simecek8Urbaniec2n = 10Simecek took 8 of 10
S3Simecek6Urbaniec4n = 10Simecek took 6 of 10
S4Simecek7Urbaniec0n = 7Simecek took 7 of 7
S5Simecek2Urbaniec1n = 3Simecek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimecekUrbaniecS − UBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.831.8+10.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimecekUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 226 vs 656 / 128850%50.9%113 / 226 vs 656 / 1288Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimecekSimecek 1.67/Urbaniec 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Simecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Simecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 10:30J. Simecek50911811113R. Urbaniec3511211742
WSep 23 · 09:30J. Simecek331111113R. Urbaniec197750
WSep 23 · 07:30J. Simecek331111113R. Urbaniec198740
WAug 27 · 22:30J. Simecek521411511113R. Urbaniec4416711732
WAug 7 · 13:29J. Simecek4211119113R. Urbaniec29681141
LAug 7 · 10:30J. Simecek4211661272R. Urbaniec452111110113
WAug 7 · 08:30J. Simecek45121111113R. Urbaniec33147751
WJun 13 · 23:00J. Simecek4671411143R. Urbaniec4211127121
WJun 11 · 13:30J. Simecek4211911113R. Urbaniec31711851
WJun 11 · 12:30J. Simecek331111113R. Urbaniec216870
J. Simecek10
WSep 23 · 11:00O. Svacha1.611112771J. Simecek2.20131011113WSep 23 · 09:30J. Simecek1.501111113R. Urbaniec2.507750WSep 23 · 08:30A. Barton1.73511481J. Simecek2.0011711113WSep 23 · 07:30J. Simecek1.671111113R. Urbaniec2.108740WSep 23 · 06:30M. Wagner2.10651171J. Simecek1.6711117113LSep 18 · 02:00J. Simecek1.67251161M. Wagner2.1011114113LSep 18 · 01:00J. Simecek2.637119101O. Kolisnyk1.4411911123LSep 18 · 24:00A. Barton1.837111110113J. Simecek1.8311871292LSep 17 · 22:30J. Ruzicka1.611111123J. Simecek2.2087100LSep 17 · 16:59J. Simecek1.83911571J. Kanera1.8311311113
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 23 · 09:30J. Simecek1.501111113R. Urbaniec2.507750WSep 23 · 08:00R. Urbaniec1.801171113113M. Wagner1.9151161552LSep 23 · 07:30J. Simecek1.671111113R. Urbaniec2.108740WSep 23 · 06:00R. Urbaniec2.751291114113A. Barton1.40141191282WSep 22 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.10812119113O. Cmerda1.65111091162LSep 22 · 20:00R. Urbaniec1.9191111772O. Cmerda1.80115911113WSep 22 · 19:30V. Nohejl1.6791112121R. Urbaniec2.1011514143WSep 22 · 18:00R. Urbaniec1.4411511113P. Saleny2.63911851WSep 22 · 02:58R. Urbaniec1.6113191011113O. Svacha2.20112112662LSep 22 · 01:30R. Urbaniec2.5011691162J. Kycelt1.50511115113
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