TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Urbaniec vs Ondrej Cmerda 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Radim Urbaniec
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911115119711711
Ondrej Cmerda
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Cmerda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Ondrej Cmerda below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Ondrej Cmerda at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 8–16 Ondrej Cmerda Radim Urbaniec has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:49What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cmerda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-16 in 24
Cmerda
Correct
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1782 vs Cmerda 1698
Urbaniec
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 80% vs Cmerda 60%
Urbaniec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 80% vs Cmerda 50%
Urbaniec
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec +3 · Cmerda +1
Urbaniec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Urbaniec) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 1.91 / Cmerda 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Urbaniec)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13169949
Urbaniec1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 178 of 453
Down 0–1, comes back21% 54 of 255
Down 0–2, comes back6% 8 of 140
Cmerda1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 26 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it79% 19 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrbaniec4wins
AwayCmerda6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCmerda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec66.7%4 of 6
AwayCmerda100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec6Cmerda4n = 10Urbaniec took 6 of 10
S2Urbaniec5Cmerda5n = 10split evenly
S3Urbaniec5Cmerda5n = 10split evenly
S4Urbaniec1Cmerda4n = 5Cmerda took 4 of 5
S5Urbaniec1Cmerda2n = 3Cmerda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbaniecCmerdaU − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.136.6−0.5per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecCmerdaBasisWin rate · lifetime653 / 1281 vs 182 / 35051%52%653 / 1281 vs 182 / 350Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbaniecUrbaniec 1.91/Cmerda 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Urbaniec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cmerda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 16:30R. Urbaniec351311113O. Cmerda2211560
LJun 10 · 01:00R. Urbaniec207850O. Cmerda331111113
WMay 26 · 21:30R. Urbaniec561114119113O. Cmerda4791651162
LMay 26 · 18:30R. Urbaniec4611911962O. Cmerda47711711113
LMay 26 · 16:00R. Urbaniec33514861O. Cmerda45111211113
WMay 11 · 18:30R. Urbaniec371211143O. Cmerda27105120
LMay 7 · 03:00R. Urbaniec47131181232O. Cmerda531561110113
LMay 7 · 01:30R. Urbaniec30116491O. Cmerda4291111113
WApr 14 · 18:00R. Urbaniec331111113O. Cmerda179440
LApr 9 · 03:28R. Urbaniec249960O. Cmerda331111113
R. Urbaniec10
WSep 22 · 19:30V. Nohejl1.6791112121R. Urbaniec2.1011514143WSep 22 · 18:00R. Urbaniec1.4411511113P. Saleny2.63911851WSep 22 · 02:58R. Urbaniec1.6113191011113O. Svacha2.20112112662LSep 22 · 01:30R. Urbaniec2.5011691162J. Kycelt1.50511115113WSep 22 · 24:30O. Svacha2.101111651R. Urbaniec1.6713511113LSep 21 · 23:30M. Huk1.619121112113R. Urbaniec2.20111051482WSep 21 · 22:30R. Urbaniec2.001111153M. Wagner1.7358130WSep 19 · 21:29R. Urbaniec1.731211113O. Svacha2.0010620WSep 19 · 20:00R. Urbaniec1.73711511113O. Svacha2.0011911632WSep 19 · 19:30J. Tazler4.00691111112R. Urbaniec1.22111137133
O. Cmerda10
WSep 22 · 19:00P. Saleny1.838111191O. Cmerda1.8311138113LSep 22 · 18:30O. Cmerda1.6141151272V. Nohejl2.201191110113LSep 19 · 13:30F. Pusch1.91111211113O. Cmerda1.807101371WSep 19 · 12:30F. Pusch1.73561171O. Cmerda2.0011118113WSep 19 · 11:30O. Cmerda2.1061111133M. Wagner1.671196111LSep 19 · 10:30P. Saleny2.0091111113O. Cmerda1.73116871WSep 19 · 08:59O. Cmerda1.731111113P. Saleny2.009970LSep 19 · 08:30J. Tazler2.1011913113O. Cmerda1.678111171LSep 19 · 07:30O. Cmerda1.83712711P. Saleny1.83111011113WSep 19 · 06:30M. Wagner1.9141580O. Cmerda1.801117113
Upcoming Matches
R. Urbaniec
Sep 22 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.10O. Cmerda1.65—Sep 23 · 06:00R. Urbaniec2.75A. Barton1.40—Sep 23 · 07:30R. Urbaniec2.38J. Simecek1.53—Sep 23 · 08:00R. Urbaniec1.80M. Wagner1.91—Sep 23 · 10:30R. Urbaniec2.38J. Simecek1.53—Sep 23 · 11:30R. Urbaniec1.80M. Wagner1.91—Sep 23 · 12:30R. Urbaniec1.67O. Svacha2.10—
O. Cmerda
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