TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13154130
Played Sep 19Finished
Ondrej Cmerda
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111191161311––
Mark Robin Wagner
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:42 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeMark Robin Wagner to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Cmerda above · Mark Robin Wagner below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 78 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Mark Robin Wagner at 59.4%
78 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Cmerda 1–0 Mark Robin Wagner Mark Robin Wagner has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Cmerda beat Wagner 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Cmerda 1689 vs Wagner 1704
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmerda 40% vs Wagner 60%
Wagner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmerda 30% vs Wagner 60%
Wagner
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmerda -1 · Wagner -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmerda 2.10 / Wagner 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Wagner)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13154130
Cmerda2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 6 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back7% 1 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Wagner1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 49 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCmerda1wins
AwayWagner0wins
Cmerda leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCmerdaWagnerC − WBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match39.027.0+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmerdaWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 351 vs 97 / 17551.9%55.4%182 / 351 vs 97 / 175Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerCmerda 2.10/Wagner 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cmerda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 19 · 06:30O. Cmerda391117113M. Wagner2741580
O. Cmerda10
LSep 19 · 10:30P. Saleny2.0091111113O. Cmerda1.73116871WSep 19 · 08:59O. Cmerda1.731111113P. Saleny2.009970LSep 19 · 08:30J. Tazler2.1011913113O. Cmerda1.678111171LSep 19 · 07:30O. Cmerda1.83712711P. Saleny1.83111011113WSep 19 · 06:30M. Wagner1.9141580O. Cmerda1.801117113LSep 18 · 17:00O. Cmerda2.0011118572O. Svacha1.73861111113LSep 18 · 16:30R. Urbaniec1.831311113O. Cmerda1.8311560WSep 18 · 15:30O. Cmerda1.831081111113O. Svacha1.8312116552LSep 18 · 14:30V. Nohejl2.751391211113O. Cmerda1.40151110582LJun 10 · 02:00O. Cmerda2.00581141T. Franek1.7311114113
M. Wagner10
WSep 19 · 12:00M. Wagner1.531811133P. Saleny2.38163110LSep 19 · 10:00M. Wagner1.73119691F. Pusch2.0051111113WSep 19 · 09:28J. Tazler2.50111110872M. Wagner1.50591211113WSep 19 · 08:00P. Saleny2.2514890M. Wagner1.571611113WSep 19 · 07:00J. Tazler2.381114971M. Wagner1.5371611113LSep 19 · 06:30M. Wagner1.9141580O. Cmerda1.801117113LSep 18 · 03:30O. Kolisnyk1.57111111113M. Wagner2.25136581WSep 18 · 02:00J. Simecek1.67251161M. Wagner2.1011114113WSep 18 · 24:30M. Wagner1.911111113J. Ruzicka1.807970WSep 17 · 23:00M. Wagner2.25119117113A. Barton1.5731191192
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.