TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153860
Played Sep 19Finished
Ondrej Cmerda
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210711111––
Petr Saleny
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Cmerda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Cmerda above · Petr Saleny below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 70 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Ondrej Cmerda at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Cmerda 3–3 Petr Saleny Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:56What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Saleny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cmerda 1684 vs Saleny 1737
Saleny
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmerda 40% vs Saleny 80%
Saleny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmerda 30% vs Saleny 80%
Saleny
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmerda +1 · Saleny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Saleny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Saleny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmerda 1.83 / Saleny 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Saleny)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153860
Cmerda1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Saleny1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeCmerda3wins
AwaySaleny3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmerdan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySaleny75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmerda2Saleny4n = 6Saleny took 4 of 6
S2Cmerda4Saleny2n = 6Cmerda took 4 of 6
S3Cmerda3Saleny3n = 6split evenly
S4Cmerda1Saleny2n = 3Saleny took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricCmerdaSalenyC − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match32.033.3−1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmerdaSalenyBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 350 vs 208 / 40352%51.6%182 / 350 vs 208 / 403Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.336.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalenyCmerda 1.83/Saleny 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Saleny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Saleny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 19 · 08:59O. Cmerda331111113P. Saleny259970
LSep 19 · 07:30O. Cmerda27712711P. Saleny43111011113
WApr 27 · 20:58O. Cmerda331111113P. Saleny127230
WApr 27 · 18:30O. Cmerda474101111113P. Saleny4111123872
LApr 6 · 17:00O. Cmerda2331370P. Saleny371115113
LApr 6 · 15:00O. Cmerda29711471P. Saleny4211911113
O. Cmerda10
WSep 19 · 08:59O. Cmerda1.731111113P. Saleny2.009970LSep 19 · 08:30J. Tazler2.1011913113O. Cmerda1.678111171WSep 19 · 06:30M. Wagner1.9141580O. Cmerda1.801117113LSep 18 · 17:00O. Cmerda2.0011118572O. Svacha1.73861111113LSep 18 · 16:30R. Urbaniec1.831311113O. Cmerda1.8311560WSep 18 · 15:30O. Cmerda1.831081111113O. Svacha1.8312116552LSep 18 · 14:30V. Nohejl2.751391211113O. Cmerda1.40151110582LJun 10 · 02:00O. Cmerda2.00581141T. Franek1.7311114113WJun 10 · 01:00O. Cmerda1.671111113R. Urbaniec2.107850LJun 10 · 24:00J. Ruzicka1.6712914113O. Cmerda2.1010111261
P. Saleny10
LSep 19 · 08:59O. Cmerda1.731111113P. Saleny2.009970LSep 19 · 08:00P. Saleny2.2514890M. Wagner1.571611113LSep 19 · 06:00P. Saleny1.501110101112J. Tazler2.50512126113WSep 12 · 13:31P. Saleny1.501111113M. Regner2.506110WSep 12 · 12:30S. Kasnik2.6311840P. Saleny1.441311113WSep 12 · 11:30P. Saleny1.6111119123M. Regner2.205611101WSep 12 · 10:30M. Sychra2.504511101P. Saleny1.5011117123WSep 12 · 08:59P. Saleny1.5011611113S. Kasnik2.50511711WSep 12 · 08:00P. Saleny1.5011118113S. Kasnik2.50581121LSep 12 · 07:30M. Sychra2.7551111113P. Saleny1.40119881
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