TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13145626
Played Sep 18Finished
Radim Urbaniec
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311115116––––
Ondrej Cmerda
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeOndrej Cmerda to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Ondrej Cmerda below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 57 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Ondrej Cmerda at 56.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 7–16 Ondrej Cmerda Radim Urbaniec has won 7 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:04What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cmerda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-16 in 23
Cmerda
Wrong
gap of 9 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1709 vs Cmerda 1715
Cmerda
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 80% vs Cmerda 40%
Urbaniec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 80% vs Cmerda 50%
Urbaniec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec -1 · Cmerda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cmerda) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmerda form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 1.83 / Cmerda 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cmerda)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13145626
Urbaniec1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Cmerda1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrbaniec3wins
AwayCmerda7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCmerda leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec50%3 of 6
AwayCmerda100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec6Cmerda4n = 10Urbaniec took 6 of 10
S2Urbaniec4Cmerda6n = 10Cmerda took 6 of 10
S3Urbaniec5Cmerda5n = 10split evenly
S4Urbaniec1Cmerda5n = 6Cmerda took 5 of 6
S5Urbaniec1Cmerda3n = 4Cmerda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbaniecCmerdaU − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.139.3−2.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecCmerdaBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 1263 vs 187 / 35750.8%52.4%641 / 1263 vs 187 / 357Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmerdaUrbaniec 1.83/Cmerda 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cmerda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 10 · 01:00R. Urbaniec207850O. Cmerda331111113
WMay 26 · 21:30R. Urbaniec561114119113O. Cmerda4791651162
LMay 26 · 18:30R. Urbaniec4611911962O. Cmerda47711711113
LMay 26 · 16:00R. Urbaniec33514861O. Cmerda45111211113
WMay 11 · 18:30R. Urbaniec371211143O. Cmerda27105120
LMay 7 · 03:00R. Urbaniec47131181232O. Cmerda531561110113
LMay 7 · 01:30R. Urbaniec30116491O. Cmerda4291111113
WApr 14 · 18:00R. Urbaniec331111113O. Cmerda179440
LApr 9 · 03:28R. Urbaniec249960O. Cmerda331111113
LApr 8 · 22:30R. Urbaniec4511611982O. Cmerda49811811113
R. Urbaniec10
WSep 19 · 19:30J. Tazler4.00691111112R. Urbaniec1.22111137133WSep 19 · 18:00R. Urbaniec1.571111113J. Louda2.254570LSep 19 · 02:59R. Urbaniec2.3811812792R. Rose1.538111011113WSep 19 · 02:00R. Urbaniec2.50141173113R. Rose1.50126111182WSep 19 · 01:00R. Urbaniec1.67129611113O. Svacha2.10101111682LSep 19 · 24:00J. Ruzicka1.44111111113R. Urbaniec2.63691361LSep 18 · 22:30M. Hampl1.801061111113R. Urbaniec1.9112119592LSep 18 · 17:30V. Nohejl1.671111117123R. Urbaniec2.10713511102LSep 18 · 15:00R. Urbaniec2.1011891172V. Nohejl1.67711115113WSep 18 · 14:00O. Svacha2.50951161R. Urbaniec1.5011116113
O. Cmerda10
LSep 19 · 13:30F. Pusch1.91111211113O. Cmerda1.807101371WSep 19 · 12:30F. Pusch1.73561171O. Cmerda2.0011118113WSep 19 · 11:30O. Cmerda2.1061111133M. Wagner1.671196111LSep 19 · 10:30P. Saleny2.0091111113O. Cmerda1.73116871WSep 19 · 08:59O. Cmerda1.731111113P. Saleny2.009970LSep 19 · 08:30J. Tazler2.1011913113O. Cmerda1.678111171LSep 19 · 07:30O. Cmerda1.83712711P. Saleny1.83111011113WSep 19 · 06:30M. Wagner1.9141580O. Cmerda1.801117113LSep 18 · 17:00O. Cmerda2.0011118572O. Svacha1.73861111113WSep 18 · 15:30O. Cmerda1.831081111113O. Svacha1.8312116552
Upcoming Matches
R. Urbaniec
O. Cmerda
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