TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153775
Played Sep 19Finished
Petr Saleny
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116118117––
Ondrej Cmerda
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Cmerda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Saleny above · Ondrej Cmerda below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Ondrej Cmerda at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Petr Saleny 3–3 Ondrej Cmerda Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Cmerda beat Saleny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:15What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cmerda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Saleny 1721 vs Cmerda 1700
Saleny
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Saleny 40% vs Cmerda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Saleny 70% vs Cmerda 40%
Saleny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Saleny -2 · Cmerda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cmerda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmerda form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSaleny 2.00 / Cmerda 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cmerda)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153775
Saleny2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 29 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Cmerda1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 28 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSaleny3wins
AwayCmerda3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSaleny75%3 of 4
AwayCmerdan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Saleny4Cmerda2n = 6Saleny took 4 of 6
S2Saleny2Cmerda4n = 6Cmerda took 4 of 6
S3Saleny3Cmerda3n = 6split evenly
S4Saleny2Cmerda1n = 3Saleny took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricSalenyCmerdaS − CBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match33.332.0+1.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalenyCmerdaBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 403 vs 182 / 35051.6%52%208 / 403 vs 182 / 350Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmerdaSaleny 2.00/Cmerda 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cmerda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Saleny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 19 · 08:59P. Saleny259970O. Cmerda331111113
WSep 19 · 07:30P. Saleny43111011113O. Cmerda27712711
LApr 27 · 20:58P. Saleny127230O. Cmerda331111113
LApr 27 · 18:30P. Saleny4111123872O. Cmerda474101111113
WApr 6 · 17:00P. Saleny371115113O. Cmerda2331370
WApr 6 · 15:00P. Saleny4211911113O. Cmerda29711471
P. Saleny10
LSep 19 · 11:00F. Pusch1.831411113P. Saleny1.8312550LSep 19 · 08:59O. Cmerda1.731111113P. Saleny2.009970LSep 19 · 08:00P. Saleny2.2514890M. Wagner1.571611113WSep 19 · 07:30O. Cmerda1.83712711P. Saleny1.83111011113LSep 19 · 06:00P. Saleny1.501110101112J. Tazler2.50512126113WSep 12 · 13:31P. Saleny1.501111113M. Regner2.506110WSep 12 · 12:30S. Kasnik2.6311840P. Saleny1.441311113WSep 12 · 11:30P. Saleny1.6111119123M. Regner2.205611101WSep 12 · 10:30M. Sychra2.504511101P. Saleny1.5011117123WSep 12 · 08:59P. Saleny1.5011611113S. Kasnik2.50511711
O. Cmerda10
WSep 19 · 11:30O. Cmerda2.1061111133M. Wagner1.671196111WSep 19 · 08:59O. Cmerda1.731111113P. Saleny2.009970LSep 19 · 08:30J. Tazler2.1011913113O. Cmerda1.678111171LSep 19 · 07:30O. Cmerda1.83712711P. Saleny1.83111011113WSep 19 · 06:30M. Wagner1.9141580O. Cmerda1.801117113LSep 18 · 17:00O. Cmerda2.0011118572O. Svacha1.73861111113LSep 18 · 16:30R. Urbaniec1.831311113O. Cmerda1.8311560WSep 18 · 15:30O. Cmerda1.831081111113O. Svacha1.8312116552LSep 18 · 14:30V. Nohejl2.751391211113O. Cmerda1.40151110582LJun 10 · 02:00O. Cmerda2.00581141T. Franek1.7311114113
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