TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Ruzicka vs Frantisek Pusch 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10129111141210911
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Ruzicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Ruzicka above · Frantisek Pusch below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Jiri Ruzicka at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Ruzicka 4–4 Frantisek Pusch Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Ruzicka beat Pusch 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 16:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pusch
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1836 vs Pusch 1697
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 138 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 100% vs Pusch 20%
Ruzicka
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 80% vs Pusch 30%
Ruzicka
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +7 · Pusch -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Ruzicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pusch form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.91 / Pusch 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ruzicka)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13210378
Ruzicka1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 129 of 333
Down 0–1, comes back20% 41 of 210
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 113
Pusch1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 25 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeRuzicka4wins
AwayPusch4wins
4 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka66.7%2 of 3
AwayPusch60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka3Pusch5n = 8Pusch took 5 of 8
S2Ruzicka5Pusch3n = 8Ruzicka took 5 of 8
S3Ruzicka6Pusch2n = 8Ruzicka took 6 of 8
S4Ruzicka3Pusch2n = 5Ruzicka took 3 of 5
S5Ruzicka1Pusch3n = 4Pusch took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricRuzickaPuschR − PBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.937.2+1.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaPuschBasisWin rate · lifetime701 / 1431 vs 88 / 16649%53%701 / 1431 vs 88 / 166Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.91/Pusch 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pusch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 29 · 13:30J. Ruzicka421120113F. Pusch2971840
WSep 29 · 12:30J. Ruzicka4291111113F. Pusch29116931
LSep 28 · 14:30J. Ruzicka4141115292F. Pusch551191311113
WSep 28 · 12:00J. Ruzicka506111111113F. Pusch4011135472
LSep 8 · 13:30J. Ruzicka194870F. Pusch331111113
LSep 8 · 12:00J. Ruzicka49117811122F. Pusch48611116143
LSep 8 · 09:30J. Ruzicka3551111262F. Pusch48117811113
WSep 8 · 07:00J. Ruzicka331111113F. Pusch169070
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 29 · 17:30J. Ruzicka2.0016911113O. Svacha1.731411731WSep 29 · 15:00J. Ruzicka1.53911157113R. Urbaniec2.38117131192WSep 29 · 14:00O. Svacha1.837113111J. Ruzicka1.8311711133WSep 29 · 13:30J. Ruzicka1.911120113F. Pusch1.8071840WSep 29 · 12:30F. Pusch1.73116931J. Ruzicka2.0091111113WSep 29 · 11:30J. Ruzicka1.73111011123O. Kolisnyk2.007127101WSep 29 · 10:30R. Urbaniec2.3812123372J. Ruzicka1.5310101111113WSep 28 · 17:30O. Kolisnyk2.0081160J. Ruzicka1.731113113LSep 28 · 16:00O. Kolisnyk2.00119117113J. Ruzicka1.7391161162WSep 28 · 15:00V. Nohejl1.8311119742J. Ruzicka1.83871111113
F. Pusch10
LSep 29 · 17:01F. Pusch2.7586100R. Urbaniec1.401111123LSep 29 · 15:30F. Pusch2.10761151O. Svacha1.6711118113LSep 29 · 14:30R. Urbaniec1.61131165113F. Pusch2.20118111172LSep 29 · 13:30J. Ruzicka1.911120113F. Pusch1.8071840LSep 29 · 12:30F. Pusch1.73116931J. Ruzicka2.0091111113WSep 29 · 11:00F. Pusch2.38119117113R. Urbaniec1.5371141142WSep 29 · 10:00O. Kolisnyk1.6171111872F. Pusch2.20119611113LSep 28 · 16:58F. Pusch1.91711291V. Nohejl1.8011611113LSep 28 · 16:30V. Nohejl1.911111611113F. Pusch1.8013911782LSep 28 · 15:30F. Pusch2.25791181O. Kolisnyk1.5711119113
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