TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Ruzicka vs Jan Simecek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113911117116––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:22 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Ruzicka to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Ruzicka above · Jan Simecek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Jiri Ruzicka at 60.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Ruzicka 19–15 Jan Simecek Jan Simecek has won 15 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2260.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-15 in 34
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 4 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1852 vs Simecek 1732
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 80% vs Simecek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 80% vs Simecek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +1 · Simecek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Ruzicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simecek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.571 / Simecek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Ruzicka)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13226890
Ruzicka1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 172 of 298
Up 2–0, closes it95% 95 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it78% 130 of 167
Simecek2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka8wins
AwaySimecek2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka100%8 of 8
AwaySimecekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka8Simecek2n = 10Ruzicka took 8 of 10
S2Ruzicka8Simecek2n = 10Ruzicka took 8 of 10
S3Ruzicka7Simecek3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S4Ruzicka1Simecek4n = 5Simecek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaSimecekR − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.731.9+6.8per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaSimecekBasisWin rate · lifetime697 / 1414 vs 115 / 23049.3%50%697 / 1414 vs 115 / 230Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.57/Simecek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 06:30J. Ruzicka4211911113J. Simecek27311761
WSep 17 · 22:30J. Ruzicka341111123J. Simecek2587100
WAug 28 · 01:30J. Ruzicka5711101110153J. Simecek50412912132
LAug 3 · 12:30J. Ruzicka36911791J. Simecek3911611113
WAug 3 · 09:14J. Ruzicka361111143J. Simecek2888120
WAug 3 · 08:30J. Ruzicka331111113J. Simecek176560
WJul 27 · 10:30J. Ruzicka45111157113J. Simecek3645111152
LJul 27 · 06:30J. Ruzicka35911781J. Simecek4211911113
WJul 20 · 14:30J. Ruzicka351111133J. Simecek2788110
WJul 20 · 11:00J. Ruzicka341111123J. Simecek2899100
J. Ruzicka10
WOct 2 · 07:00L. Jindrak1.336118121J. Ruzicka3.2511411143WSep 29 · 17:30J. Ruzicka2.0016911113O. Svacha1.731411731LSep 29 · 16:30J. Ruzicka1.91109111292F. Pusch1.801211410113WSep 29 · 15:00J. Ruzicka1.53911157113R. Urbaniec2.38117131192WSep 29 · 14:00O. Svacha1.837113111J. Ruzicka1.8311711133WSep 29 · 13:30J. Ruzicka1.911120113F. Pusch1.8071840WSep 29 · 12:30F. Pusch1.73116931J. Ruzicka2.0091111113WSep 29 · 11:30J. Ruzicka1.73111011123O. Kolisnyk2.007127101WSep 29 · 10:30R. Urbaniec2.3812123372J. Ruzicka1.5310101111113WSep 28 · 17:30O. Kolisnyk2.0081160J. Ruzicka1.731113113
J. Simecek10
WOct 2 · 07:30J. Simecek5.00812722113E. Mares1.141110112062WSep 23 · 13:30R. Urbaniec2.379780J. Simecek1.461111113LSep 23 · 12:00M. Wagner2.38111110123J. Simecek1.535412101WSep 23 · 11:00O. Svacha1.611112771J. Simecek2.20131011113WSep 23 · 10:30J. Simecek1.67911811113R. Urbaniec2.1011211742WSep 23 · 09:30J. Simecek1.501111113R. Urbaniec2.507750WSep 23 · 08:30A. Barton1.73511481J. Simecek2.0011711113WSep 23 · 07:30J. Simecek1.671111113R. Urbaniec2.108740WSep 23 · 06:30M. Wagner2.10651171J. Simecek1.6711117113LSep 18 · 02:00J. Simecek1.67251161M. Wagner2.1011114113
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