TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Postelt vs Erik Mares 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116811116611114
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingTomas Postelt above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 85 set 5, 11-4
85 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Postelt 68–55 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 55 of their 123 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Postelt beat Mares 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 1.83 / Mares 1.87
Czech Liga Pro · #13245764
Postelt1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 49 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it66% 35 of 53
Mares1.87
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 107 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back25% 31 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePostelt6wins
AwayMares4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPostelt leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePostelt50%3 of 6
AwayMares25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt6Mares4n = 10Postelt took 6 of 10
S2Postelt4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Postelt4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S4Postelt5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S5Postelt4Mares1n = 5Postelt took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPosteltMaresP − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.444.6−1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 699 vs 604 / 120946.6%50%326 / 699 vs 604 / 1209Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PosteltPostelt 1.83/Mares 1.87
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–2
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 18:00T. Postelt3841111123E. Mares321147101
LSep 30 · 11:30T. Postelt421114891E. Mares4571611113
LSep 29 · 13:00T. Postelt3710116101E. Mares4412911123
WSep 29 · 11:30T. Postelt501171011113E. Mares4671112882
WSep 21 · 15:00T. Postelt45116115123E. Mares45811511102
LSep 17 · 02:30T. Postelt591212811162E. Mares6210101113183
WSep 13 · 21:30T. Postelt3411111113E. Mares23115431
WSep 13 · 18:00T. Postelt50641114153E. Mares551111812132
LSep 7 · 14:00T. Postelt33157561E. Mares46131111113
WSep 6 · 06:00T. Postelt46113911123E. Mares48911117102
T. Postelt10
LOct 4 · 20:30T. Postelt2.506670Z. Bilek1.501111113LOct 4 · 19:00T. Postelt2.6311611892J. Vales1.44511911113WOct 4 · 18:00E. Mares2.001147101T. Postelt1.7341111123LSep 30 · 13:00M. Zahradka1.8311101111113T. Postelt1.8361251392WSep 30 · 12:00T. Postelt2.6314131111113J. Vales1.441211131362LSep 30 · 11:30E. Mares1.9171611113T. Postelt1.801114891LSep 30 · 10:00T. Postelt2.005560M. Zahradka1.731111113LSep 29 · 13:00E. Mares1.7312911123T. Postelt2.0010116101LSep 29 · 12:00T. Postelt2.38116381J. Vales1.5381111113WSep 29 · 11:30E. Mares1.7371112882T. Postelt2.001171011113
E. Mares10
WOct 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8311811143J. Vales1.839119121LOct 4 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.2071211113E. Mares1.611110561LOct 4 · 18:00E. Mares2.001147101T. Postelt1.7341111123WOct 2 · 13:30J. Ruzicka2.101411951E. Mares1.6716811113LOct 2 · 12:00J. Ruzicka2.3811811113E. Mares1.53411891WOct 2 · 11:00A. Barton3.503511111E. Mares1.2811119133WOct 2 · 10:30E. Mares1.251311133J. Simecek3.75112110WSep 30 · 11:30E. Mares1.9171611113T. Postelt1.801114891WSep 29 · 13:00E. Mares1.7312911123T. Postelt2.0010116101LSep 29 · 11:30E. Mares1.7371112882T. Postelt2.001171011113
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