TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Lukas Zeman vs Erik Mares 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511116119117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:47 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Zeman to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Lukas Zeman @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingLukas Zeman above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Lukas Zeman at 56.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Zeman 39–28 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 28 of their 67 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:4756.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zeman
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
39-28 in 67
Zeman
Correct
gap of 11 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1869 vs Mares 1794
Zeman
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 60% vs Mares 40%
Zeman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 60% vs Mares 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman +1 · Mares -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Zeman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 1.727 / Mares 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Zeman)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243776
Zeman1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 33 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Mares2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 107 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back25% 31 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman6wins
AwayMares4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman100%5 of 5
AwayMares80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S2Zeman7Mares3n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S3Zeman3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S4Zeman6Mares4n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S5Zeman3Mares2n = 5Zeman took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanMaresZ − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.844.5+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 476 vs 605 / 121250.6%49.9%241 / 476 vs 605 / 1212Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanZeman 1.73/Mares 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.9%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Lukas Zeman @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
3–1
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 17:30L. Zeman54118151192E. Mares561311138113
LSep 19 · 14:00L. Zeman4571151392E. Mares531191111113
WSep 13 · 09:30L. Zeman471111122113E. Mares4386141142
WSep 13 · 06:30L. Zeman3611311113E. Mares35811791
WSep 12 · 12:59L. Zeman601111818123E. Mares49531120102
WSep 12 · 11:30L. Zeman45111112113E. Mares36891451
LSep 2 · 02:30L. Zeman38715881E. Mares46111311113
LAug 15 · 16:00L. Zeman417111491E. Mares4711916113
WAug 14 · 23:00L. Zeman43461111113E. Mares4311118852
WAug 8 · 11:30L. Zeman3913114113E. Mares371191161
L. Zeman10
LOct 5 · 11:30J. Ruzicka2.631111113L. Zeman1.447990WOct 5 · 10:00L. Zeman1.501111911113M. Huk2.5013411842LSep 19 · 17:30L. Zeman1.83118151192E. Mares1.831311138113WSep 19 · 16:00L. Zeman3.2511119113J. Cernik1.33351181WSep 19 · 15:30D. Opanasiuk1.6198100L. Zeman2.201111123LSep 19 · 14:00L. Zeman1.9171151392E. Mares1.801191111113WSep 19 · 13:30L. Prikasky1.573570L. Zeman2.251111113WSep 19 · 12:30J. Mecl Jr1.8377100L. Zeman1.831111123WSep 19 · 11:30L. Zeman1.66138713113O. Kolisnyk2.051111111162LSep 19 · 10:30L. Prikasky1.831111113L. Zeman1.837590
E. Mares10
LOct 5 · 11:00M. Huk2.501081311113E. Mares1.50121111992WOct 5 · 10:30E. Mares1.671111113J. Ruzicka2.109890LOct 4 · 20:59T. Postelt1.83118116113E. Mares1.8761161142WOct 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8311811143J. Vales1.839119121LOct 4 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.2071211113E. Mares1.611110561LOct 4 · 18:00E. Mares2.001147101T. Postelt1.7341111123WOct 2 · 13:30J. Ruzicka2.101411951E. Mares1.6716811113LOct 2 · 12:00J. Ruzicka2.3811811113E. Mares1.53411891WSep 19 · 17:30L. Zeman1.83118151192E. Mares1.831311138113WSep 19 · 14:00L. Zeman1.9171151392E. Mares1.801191111113
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