TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Huk vs Vojtech Koubek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1412811611115116
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:26 and never touched: 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Huk to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Huk above · Vojtech Koubek below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 95 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Martin Huk at 61.5%
95 points played in total.
H2H Martin Huk 3–1 Vojtech Koubek Vojtech Koubek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Huk beat Koubek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2661.5%Our read40.0%to break even at 2.50
clears by 21.5pp40.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Koubek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Huk
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Huk 1844 vs Koubek 1806
Huk
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Huk 80% vs Koubek 40%
Huk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Huk 60% vs Koubek 30%
Huk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Huk +1 · Koubek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Huk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koubek form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHuk 2.50 / Koubek 1.50
Signal prob.62% / 39%
Edge (Huk)+21.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13250132
Huk2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 118 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back27% 40 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 80
Koubek1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 32 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHuk3wins
AwayKoubek1wins
Huk leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHuk75%3 of 4
AwayKoubekn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Huk4Koubek0n = 4Huk took 4 of 4
S2Huk2Koubek2n = 4split evenly
S3Huk1Koubek3n = 4Koubek took 3 of 4
S4Huk3Koubek1n = 4Huk took 3 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home375%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricHukKoubekH − KBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match41.834.5+7.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHukKoubekBasisWin rate · lifetime773 / 1575 vs 190 / 37749.1%50.4%773 / 1575 vs 190 / 377Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HukHuk 2.50/Koubek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.5%
Huk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Huk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 5 · 14:30M. Huk4211119113V. Koubek28661151
LJan 17 · 12:30M. Huk33117691V. Koubek4181111113
WDec 9 · 17:00M. Huk43111011113V. Koubek24512521
WSep 27 · 08:00M. Huk4913139143V. Koubek45111111121
M. Huk10
WOct 5 · 16:00E. Mares1.50912961M. Huk2.50111011113LOct 5 · 15:00J. Ruzicka1.831171310123M. Huk1.839111112102WOct 5 · 14:30M. Huk2.5011119113V. Koubek1.50661151WOct 5 · 13:30M. Huk2.25111111113L. Zeman1.57421331WOct 5 · 12:30M. Huk1.838111114113J. Ruzicka1.83118131252WOct 5 · 11:00M. Huk2.501081311113E. Mares1.50121111992LOct 5 · 10:00L. Zeman1.501111911113M. Huk2.5013411842LSep 30 · 17:30M. Huk2.10112120M. Jezek1.651114143LSep 30 · 16:00M. Jezek1.83119119113M. Huk1.8381161172WSep 30 · 15:00R. Urbaniec2.10101291142M. Huk1.671210116113
V. Koubek10
WOct 5 · 16:30J. Ruzicka2.101011951V. Koubek1.6712711113WOct 5 · 15:30V. Koubek1.731111123E. Mares2.0075100LOct 5 · 14:30M. Huk2.5011119113V. Koubek1.50661151LSep 24 · 17:00T. Postelt2.206121111113V. Koubek1.6111147452LSep 24 · 16:00T. Postelt2.251411113V. Koubek1.5712650LSep 24 · 15:00J. Kycelt3.25111110113V. Koubek1.33771291LSep 24 · 14:30V. Koubek2.00125761J. Vales1.73101111113LSep 21 · 17:30T. Postelt2.381111113V. Koubek1.536570LSep 21 · 16:30T. Postelt2.201111113V. Koubek1.618770WSep 21 · 15:30V. Koubek2.6371111113J. Zajicek1.44117551
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