TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Stempak vs Lukas Krupnik Snr 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711611119611––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:03 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Stempak to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Stempak above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Lukas Stempak at 60.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Stempak 1–1 Lukas Krupnik Snr Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:0360.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Stempak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stempak 1313 vs Snr 1304
Stempak
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stempak 40% vs Snr 20%
Stempak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stempak 30% vs Snr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stempak +2 · Snr -3
Snr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Stempak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStempak 1.533 / Snr 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Stempak)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13236249
Stempak1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite19% won 3 of 16
Snr2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 21 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStempak1wins
AwaySnr1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricStempakSnrStempak − SnrBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match31.532.0−0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStempakSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime23 / 56 vs 66 / 14641.1%45.2%23 / 56 vs 66 / 146Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StempakStempak 1.53/Snr 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 3 · 07:10L. Stempak30761161L. Snr4211119113
WJul 18 · 05:45L. Stempak331111113L. Snr227960
L. Stempak10
WOct 3 · 05:40F. Mandrysz1.57981181L. Stempak2.2511115113WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 05:40L. Krupnik Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LAug 22 · 05:40L. Krupnik Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Krupnik Jr3.001112113
L. Snr10
LOct 3 · 07:40F. Mandrysz1.8041L. Snr1.9100LOct 3 · 06:10L. Snr1.83151011111J. Lysek1.8317129133LSep 25 · 12:38L. Snr2.5041170J. Jnr1.501113113LSep 25 · 12:10L. Snr1.28311241Z. Chovancik3.5011811113WSep 25 · 10:40J. Jnr1.36811101142L. Snr3.00117128113LSep 25 · 10:10P. Sturma1.731111113L. Snr2.007480LSep 22 · 08:43L. Snr1.8381090J. Sevecek1.831112113LSep 22 · 08:10J. Matus1.3311911113L. Snr3.25411481WSep 22 · 07:10L. Snr2.2091111113J. Sevecek1.61115961WSep 22 · 05:40A. Strelec1.5311691182L. Snr2.38711113113
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