TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Matus vs Lukas Krupnik Snr 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114911114118––
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:59 and never touched — 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jiri Matus at 73.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 4–0 Lukas Krupnik Snr Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:59What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Matus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Matus
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1387 vs Snr 1349
Matus
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Snr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 50% vs Snr 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -1 · Snr +3
Snr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Matus) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.33 / Snr 3.25
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Matus)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13173181
Matus1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 90 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it75% 63 of 84
Snr3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 19 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back17% 5 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMatus4wins
AwaySnr0wins
Matus leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus100%4 of 4
AwaySnrn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus4Snr0n = 4Matus took 4 of 4
S2Matus2Snr2n = 4split evenly
S3Matus4Snr0n = 4Matus took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMatusSnrM − SBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match36.824.8+12.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 440 vs 64 / 13851.8%46.4%228 / 440 vs 64 / 138Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.33/Snr 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.7%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus3911611113L. Snr30911821
WSep 15 · 08:10J. Matus4211911113L. Snr33611971
WApr 27 · 06:45J. Matus331111113L. Snr174580
WMar 31 · 05:40J. Matus331111113L. Snr197390
J. Matus10
LSep 22 · 06:40A. Strelec1.83119811113J. Matus1.8391111982WSep 22 · 06:10J. Sevecek1.801011371J. Matus1.9112611113WSep 21 · 08:55J. Matus2.1011115113I. Jemelka1.65581181LSep 21 · 08:10A. Strelec1.801012711113J. Matus1.91121011752WSep 21 · 07:10J. Matus2.2511111113I. Jemelka1.57911571LSep 21 · 05:40J. Sindler1.67512811113J. Matus2.10111011462WSep 20 · 08:45F. Mandrysz1.91814981J. Matus1.80111211113LSep 20 · 07:45J. Sindler1.7311414133J. Matus2.0061112111WSep 20 · 07:15M. Sobota1.80126871J. Matus1.91101111113LSep 20 · 06:15J. Matus1.731611911142F. Mandrysz2.001413115163
L. Snr10
WSep 22 · 07:10L. Snr2.2091111113J. Sevecek1.61115961WSep 22 · 05:40A. Strelec1.5311691182L. Snr2.38711113113WSep 18 · 12:40L. Snr1.2512117113Z. Chovancik3.751081161LSep 18 · 12:10L. Snr1.80117841P. Sturma1.9181111113LSep 18 · 10:40J. Jnr1.40121111113L. Snr2.75146561WSep 18 · 10:10Z. Chovancik2.507570L. Snr1.501111113WSep 16 · 08:50L. Snr1.571111113L. Zustina2.253770LSep 16 · 08:15L. Snr1.5793111182R. Zajac2.25111199113WSep 16 · 06:45L. Zustina1.834970L. Snr1.831111113LSep 16 · 06:15J. Sindler1.6171111113L. Snr2.20118661
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