TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115118511118––
Ivan Jemelka
Away
1.65
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:45 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeIvan Jemelka to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Ivan Jemelka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 70 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ivan Jemelka at 57.6%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 3–4 Ivan Jemelka Jiri Matus has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Matus beat Jemelka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:45What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Jemelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1408 vs Jemelka 1397
Matus
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 40% vs Jemelka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 40% vs Jemelka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -1 · Jemelka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jemelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jemelka form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 2.10 / Jemelka 1.65
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Jemelka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13168495
Matus2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 25 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Jemelka1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 19 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMatus3wins
AwayJemelka4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderJemelka leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus100%3 of 3
AwayJemelka100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus3Jemelka4n = 7Jemelka took 4 of 7
S2Matus4Jemelka3n = 7Matus took 4 of 7
S3Matus1Jemelka6n = 7Jemelka took 6 of 7
S4Matus3Jemelka2n = 5Matus took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMatusJemelkaM − JBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match35.639.9−4.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusJemelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 438 vs 62 / 12851.8%48.4%227 / 438 vs 62 / 128Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaMatus 2.10/Jemelka 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.2%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 21 · 08:55J. Matus3811115113I. Jemelka32581181
WSep 21 · 07:10J. Matus3411111113I. Jemelka32911571
LSep 15 · 05:40J. Matus55811121592I. Jemelka571181413113
LAug 26 · 07:10J. Matus2174100I. Jemelka341111123
LAug 1 · 09:45J. Matus346117101I. Jemelka4211811123
LJul 6 · 05:45J. Matus206680I. Jemelka331111113
WJul 1 · 18:45J. Matus47111555113I. Jemelka49713111172
J. Matus10
LSep 21 · 08:10A. Strelec1.801012711113J. Matus1.91121011752WSep 21 · 07:10J. Matus2.2511111113I. Jemelka1.57911571LSep 21 · 05:40J. Sindler1.67512811113J. Matus2.10111011462WSep 20 · 08:45F. Mandrysz1.91814981J. Matus1.80111211113LSep 20 · 07:45J. Sindler1.7311414133J. Matus2.0061112111WSep 20 · 07:15M. Sobota1.80126871J. Matus1.91101111113LSep 20 · 06:15J. Matus1.731611911142F. Mandrysz2.001413115163WSep 17 · 08:45J. Matus1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91411761LSep 17 · 08:10J. Sindler1.7311125113J. Matus2.006101151LSep 17 · 07:10J. Matus2.25451181P. Chlad1.5711115113
I. Jemelka10
LSep 21 · 07:40J. Sindler1.9111611113I. Jemelka1.80911571LSep 21 · 07:10J. Matus2.2511111113I. Jemelka1.57911571WSep 21 · 06:10I. Jemelka1.73612915123A. Strelec2.0011101113102LSep 19 · 17:04I. Jemelka1.6145111192P. Chvojka2.20111197113WSep 19 · 15:40I. Jemelka1.91111198113J. Jnr1.8059111192LSep 19 · 14:40I. Jemelka1.8012111041P. Sturma1.9114412113WSep 19 · 13:40I. Jemelka1.731112123P. Chvojka2.00310100WSep 15 · 09:13A. Strelec2.63821181I. Jemelka1.4411118113LSep 15 · 07:40I. Jemelka1.7328120A. Strelec2.001111143WSep 15 · 06:40I. Jemelka1.611111113L. Snr2.208680
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