TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Mandrysz vs Lukas Krupnik Snr 1-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 0
Set by set
40––––––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:37 and never touched: 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 4-0
Point 4 set 1, 4-0 · our read held Filip Mandrysz at 54.7%
4 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 2–4 Lukas Krupnik Snr Filip Mandrysz has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3754.7%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 0.9pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mandrysz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Snr
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1385 vs Snr 1304
Mandrysz
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 40% vs Snr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 60% vs Snr 40%
Mandrysz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz +1 · Snr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Mandrysz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.80 / Snr 1.909
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Mandrysz)-0.9pp
TT Cup · #13235191
Mandrysz1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 75 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it73% 49 of 67
Snr1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 21 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMandrysz2wins
AwaySnr4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderSnr leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz66.7%2 of 3
AwaySnr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz3Snr3n = 6split evenly
S2Mandrysz1Snr5n = 6Snr took 5 of 6
S3Mandrysz3Snr3n = 6split evenly
S4Mandrysz2Snr1n = 3Mandrysz took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricMandryszSnrM − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match33.536.7−3.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 467 vs 66 / 14650.8%45.2%237 / 467 vs 66 / 146Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszMandrysz 1.80/Snr 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–0
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz51128911112L. Snr521011117133
WSep 1 · 09:14F. Mandrysz341111123L. Snr2899100
LSep 1 · 08:10F. Mandrysz371171181L. Snr3813113113
LAug 27 · 08:39F. Mandrysz143650L. Snr331111113
WAug 27 · 08:10F. Mandrysz4111811113L. Snr36911791
LAug 14 · 11:40F. Mandrysz249690L. Snr331111113
F. Mandrysz10
WOct 3 · 06:40F. Mandrysz1.7311711113J. Lysek2.00711781LOct 3 · 05:40F. Mandrysz1.57981181L. Stempak2.2511115113LOct 2 · 17:10F. Mandrysz9.10541281P. Sturma1.03111110113LOct 2 · 15:40F. Mandrysz2.6391591172J. Jnr1.441113116113WOct 2 · 14:40F. Mandrysz1.6151411123P. Sturma2.2011129101WOct 2 · 13:40F. Mandrysz—1111113N. Makara—6560WSep 30 · 17:08L. Zustina1.91119461F. Mandrysz1.8061111113WSep 30 · 15:40F. Mandrysz1.831113211113M. Sobota1.8371511892LSep 30 · 14:40F. Mandrysz1.916870L. Zustina1.801111113WSep 30 · 13:40F. Mandrysz1.731111128113J. Lysek2.0099141142
L. Snr10
WOct 3 · 07:10L. Stempak1.53761161L. Snr2.3811119113LOct 3 · 06:10L. Snr1.83151011111J. Lysek1.8317129133LSep 25 · 12:38L. Snr2.5041170J. Jnr1.501113113LSep 25 · 12:10L. Snr1.28311241Z. Chovancik3.5011811113WSep 25 · 10:40J. Jnr1.36811101142L. Snr3.00117128113LSep 25 · 10:10P. Sturma1.731111113L. Snr2.007480LSep 22 · 08:43L. Snr1.8381090J. Sevecek1.831112113LSep 22 · 08:10J. Matus1.3311911113L. Snr3.25411481WSep 22 · 07:10L. Snr2.2091111113J. Sevecek1.61115961WSep 22 · 05:40A. Strelec1.5311691182L. Snr2.38711113113
Upcoming Matches
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