TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Patrik Sturma vs Lukas Krupnik Snr 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 52 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 13–8 Lukas Krupnik Snr Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:56What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sturma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-8 in 21
Sturma
Correct
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1317 vs Snr 1328
Snr
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 80% vs Snr 60%
Sturma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 50% vs Snr 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma +2 · Snr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Sturma) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.73 / Snr 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Sturma)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13191336
Sturma1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 65 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it52% 35 of 68
Snr2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 22)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 21 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma5wins
AwaySnr5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma33.3%1 of 3
AwaySnr42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma3Snr7n = 10Snr took 7 of 10
S2Sturma5Snr5n = 10split evenly
S3Sturma7Snr3n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S4Sturma5Snr4n = 9Sturma took 5 of 9
S5Sturma1Snr2n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaSnrSturma − SnrBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.938.90.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 883 vs 64 / 14048.7%45.7%430 / 883 vs 64 / 140Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 1.73/Snr 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 12:10P. Sturma4181111113L. Snr30117841
LSep 8 · 12:43P. Sturma37811991L. Snr3711411113
WSep 8 · 11:45P. Sturma3631111113L. Snr32118761
WAug 19 · 06:10P. Sturma4271113113L. Snr361181161
LAug 13 · 13:10P. Sturma226790L. Snr331111113
WAug 13 · 09:40P. Sturma3911611113L. Snr33611791
WAug 11 · 07:15P. Sturma44611115113L. Snr4611961192
LJul 24 · 08:45P. Sturma518111111102L. Snr52111397123
LJul 24 · 07:10P. Sturma4411812672L. Snr474111011113
LJul 22 · 09:13P. Sturma33128941L. Snr43101111113
P. Sturma10
WSep 24 · 17:15P. Sturma1.5011611113M. Dolezal2.50311471WSep 24 · 15:45M. Dolezal2.006960P. Sturma1.731111113LSep 24 · 15:15J. Lysek1.80116118113P. Sturma1.9171191182WSep 24 · 14:15P. Sturma2.0081211143L. Zustina1.7311107121WSep 24 · 12:48P. Sturma1.4491311113R. Sedivy2.631111761LSep 24 · 11:45P. Sturma1.911187101L. Zustina1.8061111123LSep 24 · 10:45P. Sturma1.671530Z. Chovancik2.101111113WSep 24 · 09:45P. Sturma1.7371111113R. Sedivy2.00117991LSep 19 · 16:36J. Jnr1.361111113P. Sturma3.007880LSep 19 · 16:10P. Sturma3.0046100P. Chvojka1.361111123
L. Snr10
WSep 25 · 10:40J. Jnr1.36811101142L. Snr3.00117128113LSep 22 · 08:43L. Snr1.8381090J. Sevecek1.831112113LSep 22 · 08:10J. Matus1.3311911113L. Snr3.25411481WSep 22 · 07:10L. Snr2.2091111113J. Sevecek1.61115961WSep 22 · 05:40A. Strelec1.5311691182L. Snr2.38711113113WSep 18 · 12:40L. Snr1.2512117113Z. Chovancik3.751081161LSep 18 · 12:10L. Snr1.80117841P. Sturma1.9181111113LSep 18 · 10:40J. Jnr1.40121111113L. Snr2.75146561WSep 18 · 10:10Z. Chovancik2.507570L. Snr1.501111113WSep 16 · 08:50L. Snr1.571111113L. Zustina2.253770
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