TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Patrik Sturma vs Miroslav Dolezal 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113611114117––
Miroslav Dolezal
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:08 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Miroslav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 64 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 60.9%
64 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 4–1 Miroslav Dolezal Miroslav Dolezal has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sturma beat Dolezal 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:08What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sturma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Sturma
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1290 vs Dolezal 1328
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 60% vs Dolezal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 50% vs Dolezal 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma +1 · Dolezal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Sturma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.50 / Dolezal 2.50
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Sturma)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13190531
Sturma1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite47% won 61 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it50% 33 of 66
Dolezal2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 16 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSturma4wins
AwayDolezal1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderSturma leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma75%3 of 4
AwayDolezaln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma4Dolezal1n = 5Sturma took 4 of 5
S2Sturma4Dolezal1n = 5Sturma took 4 of 5
S3Sturma4Dolezal1n = 5Sturma took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSturmaDolezalS − DBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match36.229.0+7.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime429 / 882 vs 23 / 5048.6%46%429 / 882 vs 23 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.434.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 1.50/Dolezal 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 24 · 15:45P. Sturma331111113M. Dolezal216960
WJul 28 · 21:05P. Sturma501111116113M. Dolezal4313741182
WJul 28 · 20:10P. Sturma331111113M. Dolezal206770
LJul 27 · 16:10P. Sturma31117491M. Dolezal3961111113
WJul 21 · 08:15P. Sturma341111123M. Dolezal2248100
P. Sturma10
WSep 24 · 15:45M. Dolezal2.006960P. Sturma1.731111113LSep 24 · 15:15J. Lysek1.80116118113P. Sturma1.9171191182WSep 24 · 14:15P. Sturma2.0081211143L. Zustina1.7311107121WSep 24 · 12:48P. Sturma1.4491311113R. Sedivy2.631111761LSep 24 · 11:45P. Sturma1.911187101L. Zustina1.8061111123LSep 24 · 10:45P. Sturma1.671530Z. Chovancik2.101111113WSep 24 · 09:45P. Sturma1.7371111113R. Sedivy2.00117991LSep 19 · 16:36J. Jnr1.361111113P. Sturma3.007880LSep 19 · 16:10P. Sturma3.0046100P. Chvojka1.361111123WSep 19 · 14:40I. Jemelka1.8012111041P. Sturma1.9114412113
M. Dolezal10
LSep 24 · 15:45M. Dolezal2.006960P. Sturma1.731111113WSep 24 · 14:45M. Dolezal1.8311116113L. Zustina1.83471191WSep 24 · 13:45M. Dolezal2.001511113J. Lysek1.7313630WSep 17 · 20:40M. Dolezal1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91311431LSep 17 · 20:10R. Benesz1.8371411113M. Dolezal1.831112251LSep 17 · 19:10M. Dolezal2.10912991T. Ogrocki1.67111011113WSep 17 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.73381261M. Dolezal2.00111110113LSep 13 · 20:55J. Matus1.731112113M. Dolezal2.0081030LSep 13 · 19:45M. Dolezal1.53105100L. Jr2.381211123LSep 13 · 18:45M. Dolezal1.835620J. Oleksik1.831111113
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