TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Mandrysz vs Patrik Sturma 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
51114121191210––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:34 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 84 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Filip Mandrysz at 59.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 35–28 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 28 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3459.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mandrysz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
35-28 in 63
Mandrysz
Correct
gap of 7 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1396 vs Sturma 1339
Mandrysz
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 80% vs Sturma 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 70% vs Sturma 50%
Mandrysz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz +2 · Sturma +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Mandrysz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.615 / Sturma 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Mandrysz)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232123
Mandrysz1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it73% 49 of 67
Sturma2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 120 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back40% 50 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMandrysz6wins
AwaySturma4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz25%1 of 4
AwaySturma16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S2Mandrysz6Sturma4n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S3Mandrysz8Sturma2n = 10Mandrysz took 8 of 10
S4Mandrysz5Sturma4n = 9Mandrysz took 5 of 9
S5Mandrysz1Sturma2n = 3Sturma took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMandryszSturmaM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.036.5+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 461 vs 437 / 89750.8%48.7%234 / 461 vs 437 / 897Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszMandrysz 1.61/Sturma 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 16:40F. Mandrysz331111113P. Sturma123450
WSep 25 · 14:10F. Mandrysz4291111113P. Sturma31118751
WSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz50611139113P. Sturma47115111192
WSep 19 · 12:10F. Mandrysz4291111113P. Sturma35119691
LSep 2 · 11:40F. Mandrysz4211511692P. Sturma46511811113
LAug 30 · 14:10F. Mandrysz32951171P. Sturma4011117113
LAug 30 · 13:10F. Mandrysz27111691P. Sturma4071111113
WAug 30 · 12:10F. Mandrysz4391112113P. Sturma351171071
LAug 20 · 12:40F. Mandrysz48118811102P. Sturma50711119123
WAug 20 · 12:10F. Mandrysz4181111113P. Sturma29115581
F. Mandrysz10
WOct 2 · 13:40F. Mandrysz—1111113N. Makara—6560WSep 30 · 17:08L. Zustina1.91119461F. Mandrysz1.8061111113WSep 30 · 15:40F. Mandrysz1.831113211113M. Sobota1.8371511892LSep 30 · 14:40F. Mandrysz1.916870L. Zustina1.801111113WSep 30 · 13:40F. Mandrysz1.731111128113J. Lysek2.0099141142WSep 25 · 16:40F. Mandrysz1.801111113P. Sturma1.913450WSep 25 · 15:40L. Krupnik Jr1.91911914102F. Mandrysz1.801151112123LSep 25 · 15:10J. Lysek1.9111118113F. Mandrysz1.80461161WSep 25 · 14:10F. Mandrysz1.9191111113P. Sturma1.80118751WSep 22 · 16:40F. Mandrysz2.2011115113O. Vaclahovsky1.61751131
P. Sturma10
WOct 2 · 14:10J. Jnr2.20961271P. Sturma1.61111110113WOct 2 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.4011112101P. Sturma2.7581311123LOct 2 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.5761111113P. Sturma2.25116761WOct 2 · 11:10P. Sturma2.0051111113J. Sindler1.73117991WOct 2 · 09:40P. Chvojka1.301411471P. Sturma3.40121311113LOct 1 · 12:44P. Sturma1.8311119111L. Krupnik Jr1.8313911133WOct 1 · 12:15P. Sturma2.2051111123L. Krupnik Jr1.611166101LOct 1 · 10:45P. Chlad1.837131011113P. Sturma1.83111112392LSep 25 · 16:40F. Mandrysz1.801111113P. Sturma1.913450LSep 25 · 14:10F. Mandrysz1.9191111113P. Sturma1.80118751
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