TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Mandrysz vs Oldrich Vaclahovsky 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117115511113––
Oldrich Vaclahovsky
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOldrich Vaclahovsky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Oldrich Vaclahovsky below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 64 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Oldrich Vaclahovsky at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 4–5 Oldrich Vaclahovsky Filip Mandrysz has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Mandrysz beat Vaclahovsky 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:37What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1367 vs Vaclahovsky 1410
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 60% vs Vaclahovsky 40%
Mandrysz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 40% vs Vaclahovsky 60%
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz -1 · Vaclahovsky -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vaclahovsky) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclahovsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 2.20 / Vaclahovsky 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Vaclahovsky)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13179541
Mandrysz2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 60 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back33% 28 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Vaclahovsky1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 32 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it80% 24 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMandrysz4wins
AwayVaclahovsky5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderVaclahovsky leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz100%3 of 3
AwayVaclahovsky83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz3Vaclahovsky6n = 9Vaclahovsky took 6 of 9
S2Mandrysz6Vaclahovsky3n = 9Mandrysz took 6 of 9
S3Mandrysz2Vaclahovsky7n = 9Vaclahovsky took 7 of 9
S4Mandrysz3Vaclahovsky4n = 7Vaclahovsky took 4 of 7
S5Mandrysz2Vaclahovsky1n = 3Mandrysz took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricMandryszVaclahovskyM − VBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match36.739.1−2.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszVaclahovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 452 vs 121 / 25650.2%47.3%227 / 452 vs 121 / 256Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclahovskyMandrysz 2.20/Vaclahovsky 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Vaclahovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 22 · 15:10F. Mandrysz4211119113O. Vaclahovsky32571191
LAug 30 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2091010O. Vaclahovsky341112113
WAug 7 · 13:10F. Mandrysz48141175113O. Vaclahovsky44128111122
LAug 7 · 10:45F. Mandrysz35891171O. Vaclahovsky4111118113
WJul 15 · 11:45F. Mandrysz531111119113O. Vaclahovsky4249131152
LJun 4 · 06:15F. Mandrysz2046100O. Vaclahovsky341111123
LApr 5 · 08:50F. Mandrysz26111861O. Vaclahovsky4011711113
WApr 5 · 07:45F. Mandrysz4591111143O. Vaclahovsky331164121
LMar 29 · 19:40F. Mandrysz4151621172O. Vaclahovsky521114115113
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 22 · 16:10L. Jr2.1011118113F. Mandrysz1.67871181WSep 22 · 15:10F. Mandrysz2.5011119113O. Vaclahovsky1.50571191LSep 22 · 13:40T. Ogrocki1.671112113F. Mandrysz2.1051040WSep 20 · 13:09F. Mandrysz2.1091111123P. Chvojka1.671149101WSep 20 · 11:45P. Chvojka1.5389111142F. Mandrysz2.38111116113WSep 20 · 11:15L. Jr2.001111111152F. Mandrysz1.73139139113LSep 20 · 10:15F. Mandrysz2.0011811482M. Sobota1.73611711113LSep 20 · 08:45F. Mandrysz1.91814981J. Matus1.80111211113LSep 20 · 08:15F. Mandrysz1.735880M. Sobota2.001111113LSep 20 · 06:45J. Sindler1.6111116123F. Mandrysz2.209811101
O. Vaclahovsky10
LSep 22 · 15:40T. Ogrocki1.5711713133O. Vaclahovsky2.2571111111LSep 22 · 15:10F. Mandrysz2.5011119113O. Vaclahovsky1.50571191WSep 22 · 14:10O. Vaclahovsky1.53614411123L. Jr2.381112118102LSep 9 · 17:15M. Lorenc1.85129119113O. Vaclahovsky1.85101171182WSep 9 · 16:15L. Zustina1.9191150O. Vaclahovsky1.801113113WSep 9 · 15:15O. Vaclahovsky1.53161211113R. Benesz2.381414481LSep 9 · 13:45M. Lorenc1.801191211123O. Vaclahovsky1.91511149102WSep 7 · 13:15O. Vaclahovsky1.6871311123L. Jr1.9911119101WSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990WSep 7 · 10:45O. Vaclahovsky2.2511118113T. Slivka1.57541131
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